Maneuver
Toma Nikolic as Dr. Dabic
By Sonja Biserko
Turbulence at Serbia's political scene is a logical
outcome of the May parliamentary elections. The commotion within the
Serbian Radical Party after its electoral defeat and its exclusion from
the Serbian government was unavoidable - the party had to get prepared
for Serbia's European future. In this context, the petty town propaganda
machinery promptly "washed up" Tomislav Nikolic and promoted him as "a
civilizational brake to the Radicals." So, for instance, the media
publicized the theses about Nikolic's "Sanaderization," about him as a
man who said 'no' to Vojislav Seselj and the like. Tomislav Nikolic
obtained widespread support and was qualified a person of principles and
morality. His war career and doubts that he might have committed crimes,
as well as the fact that he had never renounced the Greater Serbia,
seemed to be clean forgotten.
What is the bottom line here?
The bottom line is that this is all about a most
artful maneuver to take over the party from Vojislav Seselj - the man
everyone has already written off. Seselj's behavior in The Hague
courtroom would have hardly fit into Serbia's new image - the image of a
country heading towards Europe.
In the past five years, the Radicals were actually in
power through Vojislav Kostunica and enjoyed full support of the Academy
of Arts and Sciences, conservative circles and - the Russians. And that
was all thanks to Tomislav Nikolic, the fact everyone taciturnly
acknowledges. Seselj had been in the ruling coalition too in the
Milosevic era. This means that the Radicals have been ruling without
respite for 15 years now. Boris Tadic's unexpected victory ousted the
Radicals and caused panic among the conservative bloc, Russia's only
true pillar in the long run. What brought about Tadic's victory was the
fact that Serbia's citizens grew mature - they changed their priorities
and replaced the delusion about the Greater Serbia by the concerns of
their everyday life. Tadic's signature under the Stabilization and
Association Agreement with the EU - and, earlier, under the Partnership
for Peace - placed Serbia under the umbrella of Euro-Atlantic
integrations for the first time. In the long run, that means that Serbia
plunges into untroubled waters. For, big powers have shifted their focus
from Europe to Central Asia. Serbia can thus freely move forwards.
Glorification of Nikolic is a prelude to his political
comeback. He will be presented to the nation as a strong and principled
man by comparison with the weak and wavering Tadic. The Democratic Party
- that will gradually turn into a regime party - is the main stumbling
bloc in the way of Russia's omnipresence. The Russians, too, favor
Serbia's stabilization and accession to the EU. Therefore, it was not
mere coincidence that Tomislav Nikolic decided to vote for the SAA.
Russia's main goal is to prevent Serbia from joining NATO and to secure
a partner it can always use to destabilize the region. Russia's
strategic goal is to make the EU as dependent as possible on its gas and
oil.
However, the aforementioned calculation disregards the
new reality in the Balkans, Europe and the world. This refers to the
Russians as well. By encroaching upon Georgia Russia lost more than it
gained - within couple of days only, foreign investors fled Russia.
Russia's loss is estimated at some 10 billion US dollars. Besides, its
monopolization of energy resources will force the West to speed up its
search for alternative sources. The operation in Georgia revealed
Russia's weaknesses rather than restored its cold-war status. And those
weaknesses are far from being negligible. Russia's demographic fall
amounts to some 800,000 people per year, its economy and democracy are
weak but its imperial ambitions are unabated. Those ambitions undermine
its neighbors and growingly turn them away from it.
In brief, Nikolic's maneuver enjoys full support of
the conservative bloc and Russia, wary of Tadic. They will offer Nikolic
as an alternative to Tadic and try to present him as a leader Serbia
needs. |