|
An integral part of Russia’s state propaganda is
to create an aura of invincibility and inevitability in its foreign
policy. This is reminiscent of claims about the irresistible success
of world communism in a previous era. But reality is less sanguine,
as the Kremlin’s covert war against the West is experiencing an
escalating number of defeats that weaken its expansionist ambitions.
Moscow relishes reports about its role in
undermining Western states by corrupting politicians, championing
populists, and propagating informational havoc. Even while President
Vladimir Putin brazenly denies involvement in the U.S. elections,
Russian officials take pride in penetrating the domestic politics of
their main adversary. Such achievements propel the perception that
Russia remains a great power and must be treated as an equal by
Washington.
The Kremlin welcomes accusations of successful
interference but hides failures that expose its incompetence. Hence,
an important weapon in the Western arsenal is to loudly trumpet
Moscow’s defeats. The most notable Kremlin failures have included
the coup fiasco plotted by Russian intelligence officers in
Montenegro and inability to keep Montenegro out of NATO; ineffectual
intimidation of the Baltic states and Poland from reinforcing NATO’s
military capabilities; impotence in preventing Ukraine from
petitioning for NATO membership; and botched efforts to cower
Tbilisi from seeking NATO accession despite Russia’s occupation of
Georgian territory.
However, the most monumental Putin debacle has
been the impending loss of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).
Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople, the Universal Patriarch of
Orthodox Christianity, is preparing to rule in favor of the UOC
gaining autocephaly or independence from the Russian Orthodox Church
(ROC). This is a defeat of biblical proportions for Moscow whose
Orthodox Patriarch collaborates with the Kremlin to preserve and
expand the “Russian world.” Moscow will not only lose an important
tool of influence in Ukraine, it will also forfeit a fundamental yet
fraudulent claim to dominate the eastern Slavic world.
The independence of its Orthodox Church signifies
universal recognition that Ukraine’s history and identity predate
that of Russia. The UOC is older than the ROC, tracing its origins
back to 9th century Kyivan Rus, but its heritage has been
appropriated by Moscow through generations of disinformation.
Western observers who assert that Kyiv is the historic cradle of
Russia and its Orthodox Church are simply parroting Moscow’s
imperial propaganda.
The Ukrainian Orthodox Church is acknowledged as
the sole descendant in Ukraine of the metropolis of Kyivan Rus
within the jurisdiction of the Ecumenical Patriarchate of
Constantinople established in Kyiv in the 10th century. At that
time, there was no “Russian” nation, state, or church, and Moscow
was merely a peripheral town in the Kyivan federation. Although the
ROC professes ecclesiastical jurisdiction over Ukraine, this claim
was imposed through the imperial expansion of the Grand Duchy of
Moscow since the 15th century and the subjugation of neighbors.
Patriarch Bartholomew has now reaffirmed that Ukraine was never a
legitimate part of Moscow’s canonical territory.
Ukraine has been seeking autocephaly since it
regained statehood from the Soviet Union in 1990. Ukraine’s
Metropolitan Filaret broke with the ROC to establish the Ukrainian
Orthodox Church - Kyiv Patriarchate (UOC-KP). The ROC tried to
disguise its dominance by renaming its exarchate in Ukraine as the
UOC - Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), thus creating two competing
churches, with the UOC-MP loyal to Moscow and the UOC-KP loyal to
Kyiv. In the future, there will be one legitimate and independent
Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
Russia’s Orthodox hierarchy have disparaged the
existence of a separate Ukrainian nation and state. Since Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Orthodox clergy faithful to Moscow have
taken the side of the occupier, welcomed the capture of Crimea, and
blessed Russian mercenaries fighting in Donbas. In stark contrast,
the revived Ukrainian Orthodox Church will help consolidate the
country’s statehood, identity, and integrity.
Ukraine and Russia possess approximately the same
number of Orthodox parishes and following Constantinople’s decision
the Moscow Patriarchate will lose about half of its congregation to
Kyiv. The ROC will no longer be the world’s largest Orthodox Church
and its retaliatory moves in severing diplomatic relations with the
Patriarchate of Constantinople will further isolate Russia.
Additional Kremlin defeats are looming on the
horizon and should be widely publicized to demonstrate that Russia’s
rollback is gaining momentum. The Belarusian Orthodox Church is
likely to be next in line for autocephaly; Macedonia will join NATO
once it can confirm through a referendum its name agreement with
Greece; Ukraine and Georgia will develop closer ties with NATO and
the U.S. military; and NATO’s eastern front will continue to be
reinforced despite Moscow’s threats.
The Russian state is significantly weaker than its
exaggerated assertions, even while it continues to test Western
resolve through subterfuge and subversion. Growing realization that
Russia is suffering serial defeats on the international arena,
coupled with the grinding decline in living standards, is more
likely to turn citizens against the Putin regime than any promises
of freedom and democracy. Putin himself may well be remembered in
history as the Moscow ruler who presided over the final collapse of
the Russian empire.
|
