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The referendum on Macedonia’s agreement with
Greece, which would enable it to join NATO next year and the EU when
it qualifies, passed with more than 90% voting yes but failed to
reach the 50% threshold of registered voters voting. That was always
going to be difficult, not least because the voter rolls still
contain names that likely shouldn’t be there. But still: the boycott
organized by those opposing the referendum worked among the
Macedonian population (but not among the one-quarter or so of the
population that is Albanian).
From the point of view of those of us who wanted
to see the referendum pass, this is regrettable. The referendum was
advisory, but in a democratic society–and Macedonia is on the route
to becoming one–it is hard to ignore the will of the people. The
parliamentary majority can still try to pass the necessary
constitutional amendments and other required legislation, but it
won’t be easy.
So what next?
Prime Minister Zaev is saying he will try to
implement the agreement, seeking the dozen or so votes he needs to
reach a two-thirds majority from the opposition. If that fails, he
says he will call early elections. That’s a risky strategy under the
circumstances, but Zaev has proven himself a risk-taker.
I can’t help but wonder if the Greek and
Macedonian governments could put their heads together to come up
with a mini-package. One possibility would be a simple agreement to
allow “North Macedonia” to enter NATO, along with
confidence-building measures to implement at least some of the
provisions of the Prespa agreement, including its provisions for
enhanced bilateral cooperation. Athens will fear giving away carrots
in advance of a full agreement, but that is not really a problem in
the long term: it will still have a veto over EU membership.
To those who are celebrating the defeat of the
referendum, claiming that it would have wiped out their identity and
language, I say nonsense: in a non-violent context, only insecurity
about who you are and what your language is can do that. Macedonia
is fortunate that its Albanians are secure about their identity and
language. Otherwise I could anticipate trouble from that quarter.
But Macedonia’s Albanians want NATO membership,
sooner rather than later. They regard it as a guarantee of the
country’s democratic ambitions and their own safety and security. I
wonder how long they will continue their patience, especially if
Serbian President Vucic and Kosovo President Thaci reach an
agreement on border changes. At least some Albanians in Macedonia
might think that is an opportunity to create Greater Kosovo, if not
Greater Albania.
I am completely unsympathetic to those irredentist
ambitions. The Americans and Europeans have had a clear agreement
with the Albanians in the Balkans: Kosovo got independence, Albania
got NATO membership, and Macedonia can have it as well, but if and
only if borders are not moved, in particular to accommodate ethnic
differences. In the wake of the referendum, Washington needs to wake
up and re-establish the strict prohibition on border changes, which
is a vital foundation for peace in the Balkans.
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