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The coronavirus spares nobody, but poorer regions
with inadequate healthcare systems and deficient emergency planning
will be most affected in the long term. That makes the Balkans look
particularly vulnerable. Though by the end of March only 6,000
infections and over 120 virus-related deaths have been recorded in
South Eastern Europe, the pandemic is projected to accelerate.
Despite medical warnings, not all political
leaders initially acknowledged the severity of the threat and few
tempered their partisan divisions. In Kosova, a dispute between the
prime minister and president actually escalated as the threat
intensified. Conflicts between coalition partners on whether to
impose a state of emergency triggered a government collapse on March
25. Albin Kurti’s short-lived government lost a no-confidence vote.
Months of political turmoil loom.
New elections would disable a concerted response
to the pandemic, further undermine public trust in politicians and
institutions, and bolster adversaries’ claims that the country has
no legitimate government. The crisis may also revive the rumored
land-swap deal between President Hashim Thaçi and his Serbian
counterpart Aleksandar Vučić. That could precipitate domestic
conflict in both states and reopen territorial questions in
neighboring countries.
Curfews and lockdowns have been unevenly applied
across the Balkans, prompting suspicions that the authorities are
using emergency public health measures to stifle opposition and
strengthen controls over national institutions. A proposed law in
Croatia allowing authorities to monitor the communications devices
of people undergoing self-isolation has led to public outrage.
North Macedonia and Serbia have imposed states of
emergency and postponed preparations for April parliamentary
elections. The increasingly strict measures include partial border
closures, school shutdowns, bans on large gatherings, travel
restrictions, and curfews. But the region has been criticized for
insufficient virus testing, lack of medication, and non-isolation of
infected individuals.
Albania, the first country significantly hit by
the pandemic, did not declare a state of emergency but introduced
stringent social distancing. Bosnia-Herzegovina, which has seen
several waves of transiting refugees in the past, set up tents at
border crossings as mandatory quarantine facilities in which
everyone who enters the country will spend 14 days. Montenegro’s
government has imposed a complete lockdown on the municipality of
Tuzi, a mainly ethnic Albanian region next to the capital Podgorica
where coronavirus cases are growing fast.
The economic impact of the virus could prove
devastating not only for employees and companies but also for state
budgets. The Balkans can expect a major economic downturn through
falling GDP, higher budget deficits, recession, and rising
unemployment. The belated launch of EU accession talks with Albania
and North Macedonia, pending approval by all member states, will
enable both countries to access the EU Solidarity Fund for direct
assistance in combating the impact of the virus. However, with EU
economies also facing contraction because of the pandemic, there
will be no substantial economic benefits for the region in the
near-term.
Claims that the EU has not helped Balkan countries
to deal with the crisis are misleading and enable the Chinese
government to improve its image. After President Vučić claimed that
EU members have not helped Serbia with medical equipment, the EU
approved €7.5m to combat the threat and dispatched cargo planes to
deliver necessary supplies. Moscow has also pledged support to
Serbia to boost its propaganda offensives even as the pandemic
accelerates in Russia itself. However, medical aid from the Kremlin
is proving to be largely useless in combating the coronavirus.
Some analysts believe that countries such as
Serbia or Bulgaria will forge closer links with Beijing, because it
is viewed as more successful than the EU and the United States in
containing the pandemic and rebounding economically. However,
several governments in the region are reevaluating their ties with
China and even postponing business projects, not simply because of
the virus scare but the expected negative impact on Chinese
businesses, trade, and foreign investment.
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