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A group of people described to me as “prominent
individuals from all walks of life in Serbia” have issued an appeal
in the runup to the (remote) EU/Western Balkans Summit meeting on
Wednesday:
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The tone is muted, but the overall message is
clear: democracy is in danger in Serbia, due in part but not only to
executive action in response to the Covid-19 epidemic.
In fact democracy was at risk in Serbia well
before this year. President Vucic had already accumulated vast
power, including over the media and judiciary as well as uncontested
control of the executive branch. There has been no effective
opposition in parliament for years. Protesters against his rule came
from all ends of the political spectrum, liberal and
ultra-nationalist, but they had little impact. Any hope they had of
winning in elections evaporated when the epidemic caused the polling
to be postponed.
As in so many other countries, including my own,
the epidemic has aggravated tendencies that already existed in
Serbia. In mid-March, President Vucic had harsh words for the lack
of EU solidarity with his country and praise for the Chinese, who
have been investing more in Serbia than in the rest of Balkans. This
was an intensification of his effort to return Serbia from the
nominally pro-Western stance he adopted in the last Serbian
presidential election in 2017 to a “non-aligned” one in keeping with
the Socialist Yugoslav tradition. He had already balanced Serbia’s
cooperation with NATO by leaning heavily in Russia’s direction,
including by procuring its military equipment and refusing to
implement EU-levied (Ukraine-related) sanctions.
Much of the rest of the Western Balkans is
choosing an unequivocally Western path for its economic and
political development, even if performance often falls short. Bosnia
is the exception, but only because its Serb-run Republika Srpska
constrains the country from making a serious run at NATO. Montenegro
is still struggling with an anti-independence, anti-NATO opposition,
but it has joined NATO and its government is clear about its goal of
aligning economically and politically with Europe. The same is true
in North Macedonia, which likewise has joined NATO after settling
its “name” issue with Greece. Kosovo has always been clear about its
pro-NATO, pro-EU ambitions, despite the obvious shortfalls in its
performance.
Serbia is different for several reasons. The
Orthodox connection is stronger than in the other countries of the
Balkans, Russophilia and ethnic nationalism are dominant sentiments
in the still unreconstructed right wing of its politics, and
Belgrade is the successor state to Socialist Yugoslavia in much more
than the legal sense. Some Serbs are nostalgic for the unaligned
Yugoslav role, which they believe brought goodies from both East and
West. Others just like the familiarity of the Slav-dominated East.
No one should begrudge Serbia the benefits of
Russian and Chinese investment. Belgrade needs every dinar it can
get for its moribund economy. Germany does a lot of business with
Russia too, but has nevertheless remained a leader in the liberal
democratic world.
But it is high time the EU makes clear that the
path to accession will not be open unless Serbia aligns itself
economically and politically with Western standards, however much it
enjoys Russian and Chinese cash. It is far from that ideal today.
That is the significance of the pre-Summit appeal. Brussels and the
EU national capitals need to send a strong message to Serbia: you
are not getting into our club unless you meet entry requirements, in
particular the Copenhagen criteria:
Membership requires that candidate country has
achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule
of law, human rights, respect for and protection of minorities, the
existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to
cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union.
Membership presupposes the candidate’s ability to take on the
obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of
political, economic and monetary union.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/enlargement/ec/cop_en.htm
Sad to say, the Europeans can expect no support
for now from the US in the effort to turn Serbia into a viable
accession candidate. Washington is hostile to the EU, uninterested
in promoting democracy except in adversary states, and cares only
about quid pro quo rather than international norms or maintaining
alliance relationships.
So yes, the EU/Western Balkans Summit should send
a message not only about solidarity in the face of Covid-19, but
also about maintaining European standards and requiring adherence to
them by countries that seek membership. An anocratic Serbia is not
one that can accede to the EU. Vucic should be told to align, or
find Serbia lagging in the regatta for EU membership.
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