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Ric Grenell’s today announced Belgrade/Pristina
talks in Washington June 27:
Great news! I have received the commitment from
the governments of Kosovo and Serbia to temporarily pause the
derecognition campaign and the seeking of international memberships
in order to meet in Washington, DC at the White House on June 27 for
Dialogue discussions. (1/2)
If either side is unsatisfied with the June 27
discussions then they will go back to the status quo after they
leave Washington. As we have consistently said, we must first make
progress on growing the economies. This is the focus. I look forward
to these discussions. (2/2)
If in fact Grenell sticks with mutually beneficial
economic measures, I’m fine with this. But Jasmin Mujatovic put it
sonorously when he tweeted:
Still, most likely scenario is just a wet-fart
failure. Neither Trump nor Grenell have any kind of diplomatic
credibility or acumen, it’s an elxn yr in the U.S. & Trump is in
dire straits, Kosovo politics are in chaos – hard to see these
characters delivering on a real deal.
By which I imagine he means a real deal on key
political issues like recognition, exchange of ambassadors, and UN
membership. And of course, partition, which the new Kosovo Prime
Minister has ruled out of bounds but President Vucic still salivates
for.
The suspension of the Serbian de-recognition
campaign in exchange for Kosovo’s seeking membership in
international organizations is a nothing burger with a tilt towards
Belgrade. Suspension of the de-recognition campaign doesn’t mean
much if Kosovo is not seeking international memberships, and both
are only good to June 27 unless extended.
Notably absent is any European role. This all but
guarantees failure, since both Kosovo and Serbia want European
goodies for good outcomes. Grenell has terrible relations with the
Europeans in general and the Germans in particular. The Americans
don’t have much more than a Rose Garden ceremony in the middle of a
pandemic with a failed and unpopular US president to offer.
Both Pristina and Belgrade should be wondering
whether it would be better to bide their time for Biden, whose
odds
are looking good,
including in swing states (but caveat emptor:
there are no guarantees in American elections). A White House
ceremony could look much better in 4.5 months.
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