|
My Sunday interview with Al Jazeera Balkans
Sunday’s Serbian parliamentary election delivered
a resounding landslide to President Aleksandar Vucic, as the main
opposition parties decided to boycott. They rightly claimed
conditions for free and fair elections did not exist, due in large
part to media that are not free and courts that are not independent.
I still might have preferred they participate, if only to provide a
serious opposition voice in parliament, but that is water under the
bridge now.
Vucic, elected to a five-year term in 2017, will
stand again in 2022. The opposition is divided, incoherent, and
weak. Some are right-wing Serb nationalists indistinguishable from
the war criminals of the 1990s who sought to create Greater Serbia
by chasing Bosniaks, Croats, and Albanians from their homes in
Serb-populated or claimed areas of former Yugoslavia. Some are
devoted liberal democrats who want to see equal rights for all
citizens throughout the Balkans, justice for the victims of the
1990s, and Serbian membership in the European Union. It will be
difficult to unify the Serbian opposition, but partial unification
brought down Milosevic at the polls. It could happen again.
Vucic, once a minister in Milosevic governments,
enjoys the blessings of the nationalists. He has abandoned the
unabashed pro-European stance of his last election campaign and now
cozies up to Beijing and Moscow, the former because of its money and
the latter because of its weapons and Slavic identity. He has harsh
words for Europe, despite its substantial assistance and ongoing
negotiations for EU accession, and enjoys a good reputation with the
Trump Administration, which holds liberal democracy and the EU in
disrepute. Ethnic (white) nationalism the Administration’s only
consistent ideology. While the State Department was reserved in its
reaction to the parliamentary election, the White House will no
doubt greet Vucic warmly next weekend, when he is expected to drop
in for talks with Kosovo President Thaci under the aegis of former
Ambassador to Germany and former Director of National Intelligence
Richard Grenell.
Some may still hope Vucic will use his strong
political position in Serbia to bite the bullet on Kosovo. His
position is so strong that he could survive announcing that Belgrade
will recognize its now-independent province, exchange
ambassadorial-level representatives with it, and sponsor its UN
membership. But that isn’t going to happen because he wants
Serb-populated territory in exchange. There is little else he can
ask for, as the EU and US have provided Serbia with virtually all
the goodies in their pockets. Some think a massive investment
program might move Vucic in the right direction, but who has the
money for that right now? Grenell says he will focus the talks on
economic issues. I hope these will include implementing the many
technical agreements Pristina and Belgrade have reached but not
implemented, as well as removal of the non-tariff trade barriers
that their respective chambers of commerce understand well.
It’s incongruous that Washington is focused on
economic issues, which are the natural purview of the EU, while
Brussels will be focusing on the bigger political questions, on
which it has little purchase. This division of labor is more the
result of competition than cooperation. It won’t likely last.
Virtually any economic issue can be turned into a sovereignty
question. All sovereignty questions have economic dimensions. The US
and EU would both do better working together than competing, but
that is not possible for the Trump Administration. It loathes the
EU, and many Europeans, especially Germans displeased by his tenure
as ambassador in Berlin, loathe Richard Grenell.
Expectations for next weekend’s meeting should be
minimal, but we should also expect President Trump to try to take
credit for what he will describe, if anything happens at all, as a
terrific breakthrough, one better than any president has ever
previously achieved in the Balkans (never mind the two wars brought
to an end during Bill Clinton’s presidency). Exaggerated bluster is
Trumps only real talent. It hasn’t been working well lately, because
Covid-19, North Korean, Iran, Venezuela, China, and even Russia
haven’t been yielding to Trump’s reality show threats. Maybe he’ll
have better luck with Presidents Thaci and Vucic, but I doubt it.
They both know he won’t deliver on any overblown economic packages
and are likely, and wisely, looking past him to the day President
Biden takes office.
|
