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The statement speaks for itself, loud and clear.
Many friends in Belgrade won’t like it, because they have enjoyed
the Trump Administration’s tilt in their direction. Many Albanians
in both Kosovo and Albania will be delighted, even though it adds
little or nothing to what Biden has already been said on the most
salient issue: the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade.
Belgrade had already opted for open support of
Donald Trump’s re-election. The leading opposition figure in
Pristina, Albin Kurti, had already opted for open support of Joe
Biden, though the government there is likely to remain circumspect.
Albanians know they have gotten the short end of the stick in this
Administration, but they don’t want to offend Donald Trump, for fear
of the transactional consequences. That won’t prevent most of them
from celebrating if Biden is elected.
The consequences inside the US electorate are
marginal at best. The biggest Albanian community I know of is in New
York City. It won’t make much difference there, since both the City
and the State will vote overwhelmingly for Biden. Serbs may have a
bigger impact, as there is a significant number in Ohio, which is a
swing (or battleground) state. It has been tilting towards Trump
(65% chance of his winning it, according to The Economist). But the
bigger Serb populations in big cities like Chicago and Milwaukee are
unlikely to have much impact in Illinois and Wisconsin respectively.
Illinois is a lock for Biden and Wisconsin is leaning heavily his
way.
It is unfortunate that Albanian Americans and Serb
Americans are aligning themselves so clearly with Democrats and
Republicans, but understandable in current circumstances. Our
polarization at home naturally engenders polarization abroad. Long
gone from Capitol Hill is Ohio Republican Senator Vojnovic, who
managed more or less to straddle the Serb/Albanian divide, and soon
to be gone (defeated in his primary) is New York Congressman Engel,
who tried but is far more popular among Albanians than among Serbs.
President Trump is still occasionally expressing
his disappointment at not getting a Nobel Peace Prize for the mostly
useless agreement between Pristina and Belgrade that his minions
negotiated in hopes of buttressing his campaign. I suppose he may
reprise that silliness in Thursday night’s debate with Biden, when
the President wants to focus on foreign policy in order to distract
attention from the disastrous resurgence of Covid 19. If he does,
Biden will know how to respond. He has forgotten far more about the
Balkans than Trump has ever known.
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