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A Joe Biden presidency can deepen America’s
involvement in resolving the lingering conflicts in the Western
Balkans. While the Trump presidency was focused largely on symbolism
and public relations, a Biden presidency is more likely to grapple
with substance and set several achievable priorities. Biden benefits
from years of direct involvement in the region, both as Chair of the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as U.S. Vice President. He
strongly supported military intervention to stop the anti-civilian
wars and genocide in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosova. His son Beau
Biden, a veteran of the U.S. Army, served in Kosova with the U.S.
Justice Department to help train local prosecutors and judges.
Above all, a Biden victory will avoid the
potentially negative repercussions of a second Trump term. Trump’s
rhetoric and actions have encouraged ethnic nationalism, radical
rightism, and EU skepticism throughout Europe. Aleksandr Vučić and
Milorad Dodik openly endorsed Trump’s re-election and urged Serbs
living in the U.S. to vote for him. Dodik even described Biden as a
“Serb hater.” Both of them will now try to appease the incoming U.S.
administration and may prove less confident in blocking political
settlements in Bosnia-Herzegovina and with Kosova.
Under Biden, the Balkans and other foreign policy
arenas will be depoliticized and handled by senior appointees and
career professionals at the U.S. State Department and other
government agencies. Balkan policy will also benefit from the
rebuilding of relations with the European Union, a policy to which
Biden has already expressed his commitment, especially as Trump
distanced himself from EU leaders and alienated Berlin, Paris, and
other capitals.
The current NATO security policy, developed after
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will continue under Biden. It is
designed to enhance defense preparedness and fortify NATO’s eastern
front. These policies were not devised by Trump, but by competent
members of his national security team, including several Secretaries
of State and Defense. Biden’s appointees will remain committed to
strengthening the NATO alliance. Since his work in the U.S. Senate,
Biden himself has been a consistent proponent of NATO enlargement
and the defense of European allies. NATO partners, particularly
Ukraine and Georgia, must also be afforded the military means to
deter Moscow’s aggression.
In restoring America’s role in Europe, the Biden
foreign policy team must have several clear objectives in its Balkan
policy. First, it needs to seriously tackle the Serbia-Kosova talks
to develop a roadmap for bilateral inter-state recognition. Economic
and political elements cannot be separated despite the attempts of
Trump’s diplomats. It is difficult to develop normal economic
relations if you have abnormal political relations. U.S. leadership
in the ongoing dialogue necessitates working closely with the EU and
preventing Belgrade from delaying or diverting the discussions.
Biden is fully aware that finalizing a bilateral deal will open up
avenues for regional economic development and a firmer path toward
EU integration.
A second priority is the Bosnian impasse, for
which a senior U.S. official will need to be appointed. The status
quo between the two Bosnian entities is not a viable solution and
can explode at any time to generate regional havoc. The Biden
administration must focus on the main impediments to a Bosnian
solution. Leaders of the Serb entity have a choice. They can either
agree to constitutional changes to unblock central government
institutions and allow for the national government in Sarajevo to
make crucial domestic and foreign policy decisions, or they can be
sidelined and sanctioned by exposing their corruption and illicit
ties with America’s chief adversary – Russia. Above all, persistent
threats against Bosnian integrity by politicians in Banja Luka and
Mostar must have consequences and penalties, as they limit economic
development, curtail foreign investment, promote inter-ethnic
discord, encourage radicalism, and endanger the survival of the
state.
A third priority for the Biden team is to defuse
the growing Montenegro-Serbia dispute in which Belgrade’s meddling
in Montenegrin politics can further polarize the population. The
incoming government includes radical elements that aim to reverse
Montenegro’s progress into Western institutions. The Biden
administration will need to encourage pro-Western forces within the
new ruling coalition and in parliament and help undercut Serbian
irredentist and pro-Russia factions. Vučić should also be given
warnings with consequences to desist from any interference in
Montenegro’s politics, as well as his negative role in
Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The fourth Biden priority must zero in on
curtailing Russia’s and China’s subversion of the entire Balkan
peninsula. China has been investing millions in infrastructure and
telecommunication, benefiting from the poor investment climate to
inject its political influence. The U.S. and EU will need to work
together to prevent any takeovers of key economic sectors while
creating better conditions for private and public investment. This
is especially urgent given the negative impact of the pandemic in
the region and whose effects will be long lasting even if a vaccine
is developed and distributed. The EU’s Economic Investment Plan that
will reportedly allocate up to nine billion euros for projects in
the Western Balkans is a valuable starting point.
The Biden White House can also promote initiatives
in a multi-national front against Russia’s subversion of the Western
Balkans. It can focus on crucial vulnerabilities that the Kremlin
exploits to its advantage, including disinformation, corruption, and
the funding of rightist and leftist extremism. Belgrade will then be
tested – whether it is a contributor to regional security or a
collaborator with Russia to undermine Western institutions. Moscow’s
influence can also be undercut by helping to facilitate faster EU
integration for Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. To
achieve such goals, stronger U.S. leadership can improve democratic
standards, the rule of law, and anti-corruption campaigns. If
President Biden pursues such an ambitious but achievable agenda in
the Western Balkans he can complete the mission that he helped
launch when he was still a U.S. Senator.
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