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President-elect Joe Biden is committed to
restoring trans-Atlantic relations because a more united alliance
can better handle a plethora of global problems. One of his biggest
challenges will be in Eastern Europe, a region that is vital for the
continent’s security but faces both internal and external assaults
on sovereignty and democracy. This extensive region is not
monolithic but includes consolidated democracies, states where
democratic norms are under threat, countries with disputed borders,
states whose governments are subject to Russian capture and
countries whose territories are occupied by Russian forces. An
effective U.S. strategy must focus on strengthening national
sovereignty and regional security without alienating any ally or
partner.
In states where democratic norms are endangered,
as in Poland and Hungary, the U.S. administration needs to encourage
pluralism and the separation of powers but not to ostracize freely
elected governments and potentially weaken NATO. Poland in
particular has a strong tradition of resisting autocracy and has
become a front line defender of NATO against Russia’s revisionism.
The White House may also need to explain America’s own democracy
deficits, including partisan based Supreme Court selections, the
rejection of the simple majority principle in electing presidents
and the problematic transition between administrations.
In countries with disputed borders, Biden’s
national security team can help reinforce their sovereignty and
integrity. In the Western Balkans, it must finalize the
Serbia-Kosova talks with a roadmap for inter-state recognition. U.S.
leadership in the dialogue necessitates working closely with the EU
and preventing Belgrade from delaying or diverting the discussions.
The absence of agreement assists Moscow’s subversion, while a
bilateral deal will open up avenues for regional economic
development and EU integration.
The Biden administration also needs to tackle the
main impediments to Bosnia-Herzegovina’s progress into Western
institutions. Constitutional changes are necessary for the central
government in Sarajevo to make crucial domestic and foreign policy
decisions. Above all, persistent threats against Bosnian integrity
by nationalist politicians must carry penalties, as they limit
economic development, curtail foreign investment, promote
inter-ethnic discord and endanger the survival of the state.
For countries whose governments are subverted by
Russia and increasingly beholden to Chinese investment, the U.S.
must devise a strategy of liberation. It will need to work closely
with the EU to preclude the takeovers of key economic sectors while
creating better conditions for private and public investment. This
is especially urgent given the negative long-term impact of the
pandemic in the region even after a vaccine is distributed.
The Biden White House can also promote a
multi-national front against Russia’s subversion. It will need to
focus on crucial vulnerabilities that the Kremlin exploits,
particularly in Bulgaria, Hungary and Serbia, including
disinformation, corruption and the funding of rightist and leftist
extremism. Moscow’s influence can also be undercut by helping to
facilitate faster EU integration for all the Western Balkan states.
Washington can also play a constructive role in
Belarus, but not by sealing off the state from the West through
economic and diplomatic sanctions that will simply push it into
Russia’s orbit. It must work closely with Poland and Lithuania in a
longer-term effort to bring the country closer to Western
institutions. Warsaw’s proposal for an EU mini “Marshall Plan” of
economic assistance and developing contacts with all political
actors is a valuable starting point.
In countries whose territories are occupied by
Russian forces, the White House must strengthen their defenses by
providing weapons systems that will deter further aggression.
Additionally, Ukraine needs a roadmap to NATO entry, while Georgia
has already qualified and should start the accession process.
Moscow’s threats do not escalate into military intervention when
independent states are under NATO’s umbrella. This has been clearly
evident with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after they joined the
alliance.
To be successful Biden’s policy toward Eastern
Europe must be undergirded by a strong NATO and a firm approach
toward Russia. NATO’s eastern flank needs fortification in the Black
Sea region by enhancing maritime defenses and capabilities in
Romania and Bulgaria. Washington’s relations with Ankara must be
rebuilt on the foundations of Allied security, as Turkey is an
indispensable NATO bulwark against Russia and Iran. And in the wake
of the latest war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, America’s role as
an honest broker should aim to pull both countries closer to the
West.
Biden must also avoid any “reset” traps with
Moscow in the fruitless hope that America’s chief adversary can be
transformed into a genuine partner. A more assertive U.S. policy can
spotlight Russia’s vulnerabilities, including its economic
weaknesses and growing domestic turmoil. International democracy
initiatives proposed by the president-elect should zero in on the
Russian Federation by supporting human rights, political pluralism,
ethnic equality and genuine federalism in this increasingly
unmanageable state. Russia’s offense against the trans-Atlantic
alliance can be turned into a more difficult defense.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the
Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book, “Eurasian
Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks,” is co-authored with Margarita
Assenova.
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