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Here is my testimony to the House Committee on
Foreign Affairs from this morning:
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, not only for this
opportunity to testify once again but also for your decades of
commitment to Europe whole and free. But the job is not yet
finished. Problems remain between Serbia and Kosovo as well as
inside Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Serbia is also a factor.
The essential precondition for solving the
remaining Balkan problems is American recommitment to the region, in
tandem with European allies. Recent competition between the US and
EU, which has demonstrated it cannot do the job on its own, hampered
progress. As part of his global re-assertion of democratic values,
President Biden should consult the Europeans and announce a joint
vision for the Balkan region.
Completing Kosovo statehood
Independent Kosovo is still completing its
statehood. Its security forces are progressing toward NATO. Other
sovereign institutions are also gaining capability but lack
universal recognition.
The Pristina/Belgrade dialogue the EU leads can
help but needs more US engagement. The Americans should focus on
implementation and reciprocity. The dialogue needs a monitoring
mechanism, including for past agreements as well as commitments like
Kosovo’s EU visa waiver. Reciprocity should include extension of the
Special Chambers’ mandate to crimes committed in Serbia, including
the post-war murder of three Americans.
The main US goal for the dialogue is mutual
recognition and exchange of ambassadors. President Biden and
Chancellor Merkel should make this goal explicit and press the
non-recognizing EU members to declare they will recognize Kosovo no
later than Serbia does. UN membership will require the Americans to
convince Russia and China not to veto.
Post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are
as fraught as Kosovo’s. The Dayton accords reached 25 years ago
entailed territorial division and ethnic power-sharing, ending a
terrible war. That formula no longer makes sense for the
international community, which pays many of Bosnia’s bills, or for
its citizens, who suffer dysfunctional governance.
Dayton today serves the interests of ethnic robber
barons. One arms his statelet for secession while another eggs him
on and the third complains. The US should press the Europeans to
sanction those who advocate Republika Srpska independence and to
strengthen and reposition their troops, visibly backed by the US, to
the northeastern town of Brcko, to block secession. The US should
seek to block Russian arming of entity police as well as Croatian
and Serbian political interference.
Europe and the US want a post-Dayton Bosnia that
can qualify for EU membership. That Bosnia will be based not on
ethnic power-sharing but rather on majorities of citizens electing
their representatives. The cantons and entities, as well as ethnic
vetoes and restrictions, will need to fade. The Americans and
Europeans should welcome the prospect of a new civic constitution.
No one outside Bosnia and Herzegovina can reform
its constitution. A popular movement is needed. The United States,
along with the Europeans, needs to shield that popular movement from
repression while starving the entities of funding and redirecting it
to the central government and municipalities.
Redirecting Serbia
Everything I’ve suggested will be easier if Serbia
helps. President Trump allowed President Vucic to tighten control of
Serbian courts and news media, which often indulge in hate speech,
and to promote pan-Serb ambitions destabilizing to Bosnia, Kosovo,
and Montenegro. The Biden Administration will need to toughen up on
Belgrade, together with Europe. If Vucic continues to prefer
autocracy and alignment with Russia and China, the Europeans and
Americans will need to await the day Serbia is committed to real
democracy at home and better relations with its neighbors. Serbia’s
citizens, more concerned about jobs than Kosovo or Bosnia, need to
help. In the meanwhile, we may want to think about an interim
arrangement, provided it gives Kosovo a seat at the UN. Getting a
good deal requires readiness to reject a bad one.
Conclusion
President Biden will have bigger problems than the
Balkans. But few regions promise better returns. Cooperating with
Europeans, the US can save the sovereignty and territorial integrity
of two potential allies—Kosovo and Bosnia—and help Serbia escape its
legacy of autocracy and war. President Biden should support those
prepared to make Europe whole and free and counter those who block
progress.
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