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The 25th anniversary of the Dayton Accords is a
reason for one more look at the “unfinished job”, in the Balkans.
The Yugoslav crisis was not the crisis of the periphery but rather
an announcement of trends that are now visible in the whole world.
That is why it is important to learn lessons for the future.
Although the Dayton Accords, as everyone points out, had a function
in achieving the peace, it is still ubiquitous in the political life
of BiH and the region, because it has left room for numerous doubts
that directly concern the structure of the agreement itself.
The West expects Bosnians to take action on their own and bring to
the fore the civic option that would, in itself, lead to change.
There were those kinds of attempts but all of them were thwarted,
because in such situations local elites cooperate and prevent the
constitution of a civic Bosnia.
Axis Belgrade-Banjaluka-Podgorica-Kosovska Mitrovica
Unpreparedness of Bosnia to move within itself, but also the
unpreparedness of the international community to act since 2006
within the available framework, feeds the nationalisms, especially
Serbian ones. Serbia has not closed the Serbian issue. The leading
Serbian elite believe that it will be closed, only by “Serbian
liberation” and state unification, not by joining Euro-Atlantic
integrations or some surrogate creation, such as the so-called
“Region” or some EU-goslavia that is advocated by Timothy Les
(former British diplomat who ran the office of the British Embassy
in Banja Luka).
This fixation of Belgrade on the completion of, as they now say, the
"Serbian world", i.e the axis Belgrade-Banja Luka-Podgorica-Kosovska
Mitrovica, is greatly contributed by the very fluid international
context, as well as the political vacuum that appeared in the
Balkans. The dominant interpretation of international circumstances
is that Serbia must not miss the historic opportunity that has
arisen.
Those expectations are also reflected in its foreign policy.
Belgrade is trying to play within its policy of “neutrality”, in a
space that no one completely covers. President Vučić, who is
basically the only bearer of foreign policy, is trying to move
within the frames of the previously designed policy based on “four
pillars” (China,Russia,USA and EU) and to use all of their different
interests.
Serbia as a destabilizing factor
The key component of Serbia’s foreign policy is hypocrisy. Even
though it claims to aspire towards EU membership and closer
relations with NATO, Serbia seeks to balance relations with four
main forces, assuming that it will benefit from each one:
diplomatic, economic and military. In that sense it skillfully uses
the legacy of non-alignment, especially when it comes to recognition
of Kosovo.
The Washington agreement on the economic normalization of Serbia and
Kosovo, which was signed by Vučić and Hoti in the presence of Trump,
in September 2020, raised doubts in terms of Serbia’s orientation,
which until recently was more oriented towards Russia and China.
Serbia has gotten into a complicated geopolitical game. It is about
the geopolitical victory of America, because the “agreement”, as
Trump's mediator Richard Grenel pointed out, “distances Serbia from
both Russia and China”. However, the influence of China and Russia
should not be underestimated, considering that both of them are
already deeply in Serbia. Russia has expressed dissatisfaction with
the agreement, while China has refrained from public reactions.
Such policy of Serbia has a strong influence on relations in the
region, because it acts as a destabilizing factor which through
Serbian communities in all neighbouring countries, prevents their
integration and consolidation. Belgrade assumes that it has
established good “diplomatic relations with all centers of the power
in the world” and thus gained geostrategic benefit. Over the last
four years Belgrade has successfully penetrated Trump’s
administration, which has encouraged it to strengthen its disruptive
presence, in Bosnia, Montenegro and Kosovo, to the extent that it
has opened a possibility of recomposition of the Balkans.
A well-thought-out strategy that the Serbian elite is working on in
all domains
That is not a new approach of Belgrade. Serbia is probably the only
country in the region that has a very thoughtful strategy that the
dominant Serbian elite is working on in all domains. That implies,
above all, an enormous intellectual energy in the reinterpretation
of the nineties, that comes down to the fact that Serbs did not “act
strategically, but instinctively, driven by self-preservation”, but
they have now, however, succeeded in “opening the Serbian issue”.
Serbia’s state policy has not changed in relation to the region
after the departure of Slobodan Milošević. Other means are now being
applied and they are greatly put in the context of current events in
the West-Islamic world, especially when it comes to Bosnia and
Kosovo. Still, as 30 years ago, the offer to recompose the Balkans
along the ethnic borders emerges from the circles of national
ideologues.
RS- spoils of war that will not be easily given up
In order to understand Serbia’s behavior, its geostrategic
interests, as defined by Serbian elites, should be taken into
account. Those interests are state-owned and it is secondary which
option is currently in power. They differ only in method, but the
essence is the same. The current government has completely exposed
that strategy and in a way opened everyone’s eyes, both neighbors
and West. International very fluid context has encouraged the
current government to make harsher moves, more direct rhetoric and
reckless behavior, both domestically, regionally as well as
internationally.
That policy also includes numerous strategic government documents
such as the Strategy for Preserving and Strengthening the Relations
between the Mother state and the Diaspora and the Mother state and
Serbs in the region(2011) and the Charter on the Serbian Cultural
Space (2019). When it comes to Bosnia, Republika Srpska(RS) is a
spoils of war that will not be easily given up. Even in the security
strategy (2019), the survival of the RS is treated as a priority.
However, without resolving the Bosnian issue, the stability of the
Balkans will remain questionable.
Serbia’s geopolitical interest in Bosnia and Herzegovina is the
preservation of RS and its annexation to Serbia. It is
geopolitically important for Serbia because of the geopolitical
pressure on Montenegro and the exit to the Adriatic (which is more
than obvious during the last two months), preventing the neo-Ottoman
project, occupying the other bank of the Drina and moving the
“civilization border” to the West, which increases Serbian
influence. Achieving goals by other means in peacetime means
accepting the Dayton agreement as the optimal solution in the given
circumstances.
“Substantial national interests of Serbia subordinated to the
independence of RS from BiH”
Republika Srpska (RS) is treated as a state in Serbia, as a new fact
that emerged in the function of defending the constituency of the
Serbian people and which is internationally verified by the Dayton
agreement. The disintegration of BiH, that is, the independence of
RS is a state goal to which both EU membership and the essential
national interests of Serbia itself are subordinated. Therefore, as
nationalists think, Serbia’s fateful attachment to European
integration would tie Serbia’s hands to help maintain Republika
Srpska.
Such a hierarchy of priorities determines Serbia’s behaviour towards
Bosnia. 1990s events and their interpretation as a war of liberation
and, according to Dobrica Ćosić, as a “defense of freedom and truth
and national rights in Republika Srpska''- remain the main obstacle
in removing the essence of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s state
consolidation, as well as normalizing relations between the two
countries.
Manipulations of historical facts cemented the interpretation of the
war in BiH
Unfortunately, manipulations of historical facts in Serbia have
already cemented the interpretation of the war in BiH which is the
opposite to the historical truth. And that despite the fact that the
Hague Tribunal passed the most verdicts precisely on the occasion of
the crimes committed against the Bosniaks.
Ignoring the International Criminal Tribunal for the former
Yugoslavia (ICTY/MKSJ) and all of the gathered and documented
evidence about the war in BiH further complicates relations in BiH,
especially relations between Serbs and Bosniaks. That is very
dangerous and harmful, not only for the consolidation in Bosnia and
Herzegovina, but also for the democratic progress and the European
future of Serbia.
Belgrade blames Western powers, primarily the USA, Germany and Great
Britain for the disintegration of Yugoslavia, emphasizing their goal
is the total “capitulation of Serbs”. All of the previous offers for
resolving the crisis in BiH, which came primarily from the EU, were
welcomed without enthusiasm, because he( both Vučić and all the
dominant elite) has never been offered, as he said, “offered
compensation”, that implies “returning all the competencies to
Republika Srpska that were taken away from it, ie reaffirmation of
the original Dayton principles. Because, as it is pointed out,
survival of Bosnia is possible only with “as the confederation of
the two entities is intended”.
Biden’s victory upset Belgrade
Joe Biden’s victory has upset Belgrade, because a change of the
course towards the Balkans is expected and Biden is one of the few
Western politicians who has a very good insight into the 1990's. He
made very precise statements about that, especially about the
aggression of Serbs on Bosnia, genocide, ethnic cleaning. There are
numerous indications that Biden, together with the EU, will act in a
coordinated manner in the Balkans, which has significantly increased
expectations in the region. The EU is already inviting the USA to
form a new alliance, in order to oppose the “authoritarian forces”
together. Now is the right time to make that breakthrough.
In that sense, it is encouraging that in the Congress (8.12.2020.)
one could hear what is recommended to the new administration when it
comes to the Balkans. The Serbian media reacted immediately,
declaring all speakers to be Serb-haters, while president Vučić
stated that he expects even more pressure on Serbia, as well as he
would “win the Nobel prize if he signed the act of independence of
Kosovo”
In order for Bosnia to become a functional state, it is necessary,
above all, to put an end to the change of the borders and to prevent
the influence of both Serbia and Croatia. The two-century
imperialism of Serbia is especially dangerous. By reaffirming the
existing borders with the firm guarantee of the international
community, it is possible to remove malignant influence of all
claims, especially the Serbian ones, and only then can it be
expected the three peoples in Bosnia to turn to their own agenda.
This implies the establishment of a state identity, because without
that there is room for disintegrated trends. To begin with, EUFOR in
Bosnia needs to be strengthened, in order to prevent the conflicts
for which there is great potential.
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