|
Saša Janković, runner-up
at the latest Presidential elections in the Republic of Serbia
(2017), writes in Danas:
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has made an
unnecessary and inappropriate personal gamble with national
interests, participating in a campaign of one candidate in the US
presidential elections. To make the case even worse, his candidate
lost. This is not the first time he has made this mistake. But
unlike when he supported Hillary Clinton, this time the consequences
will be severe. This was the drop that flooded the cup and his
actions will affect the whole country negatively.
At the recent hearing of the American House
Committee on Foreign Affairs, likely perspectives of the new
American policy towards the Western Balkans were heard. Serbia – or
more accurately put – the kind of influence it exercises in the
region was defined as a problem. The new American administration
will no longer tolerate Serbia making trouble in Bosnia, Kosovo,
Montenegro, North Macedonia… nor anywhere else in the Region.
If and when Vučić loses support from Washington,
he will have no other shield to hide behind – he has wasted them all
already.
The U-turn away from the EU (to which, in fact, he
never aspired) will now, unlike previously, hit back. The EU and US
are beginning to coordinate their foreign policies again and
Washington will not continue compensating for heavy messages from
Brussels, as in the previous years. The revival of US – EU
cooperation effectively closes the space for Vučić to continue
manipulating them against each other.
As for the Russian Federation, Maria Zakharova’s
public (and close to vulgar) mockery of the Vučić’s overall position
in the Washington agreement (the infamous “Sharon Stone tweet”),
revealed Moscow’s attitude towards his troubles. If the Kremlin
interferes in the Region, it is in pursuit of Russian interests, not
Vučić’s, nor Serbia’s.
Finally, China: if anyone believed Vučić when he
claimed (including on billboards throughout Belgrade) that Xi
Jinping is his “brother” and will shower Serbia with investments,
flying cars, weaponry and protection of all kinds, then we deserve
whatever is thrown at us, don’t we?
It is no secret anymore that changes are being
considered to the Dayton Agreements. Both entities, including
Republika Srpska, could easily lose the position of “state within a
state.” That status, which could have been used constructively and
as an advantage, Serbian and Croatian political leaders (ab)used as
a rope around the neck of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Bosniak
leaders didn’t help either, constantly playing victims.
The outcome? A quarter of a century after the war,
the citizens of BiH do not have a functional state. Instead, the
region has a continuing challenge, despite the lies of politicians
from Serbia and Croatia that, as guarantors of the Dayton Agreement,
they will support the integrity and sovereignty of BiH. In the
meantime, Serbs in Bosnia developed very strong feelings for
Republika Srpska.
Republika Srpska is not its most powerful and
visible politician, Milorad Dodik. But Dodik, in cooperation with
the authorities from Belgrade, ruined the opportunity for the
Serbian entity to be constructive and favored by the world. After
Vučić has lost his latest gamble, if and when the structure of BiH
is changed the question is how much of Republika Srpska’s
jurisdiction will remain. He broke so many promises that many in the
West have become determined not to let him continue fooling them.
Another challenge, its solution long overdue, is
Kosovo. The US and the EU will now insist, without further delay, on
a comprehensive agreement between Belgrade and Pristina. Serbia
should actively influence its content with its proposals, but
Vučić’s populist regime abstains so that it can decline any
responsibility for the outcome and blame it on others. His oppressed
political opposition acts the same way.
There was just one proposal from the side of the
opposition that didn’t include formal recognition of independence
and still had some chance to be considered internationally.* It was
swiftly declared treasonous by both the Vučić’s regime and the rest
of the opposition. Since then, three years ago, neither the regime
nor the opposition has proposed what to do.
Instead, some opposition leaders consider that
putting forward a proposal would provide Vučić with an opportunity
to blame them for the loss of Kosovo, using his propaganda machine.
And he would, the record shows. So they choose to wait for the West
to force Vučić into making a move, so that they can accuse him of
treason and topple him. In the meantime, they join him in inspiring
cheap nationalist feelings, needed to help their plan – which in
fact mirrors his own.
Other opposition leaders silently agree with
Vučić’s tactics of blackmailing everybody, inside and out, with
Kosovo and Republika Srpska, with a faint view of the “Greater
Serbia” somewhere down the road. They would only do it “faster,
stronger, better” (an electoral slogan of Vučić’s own party).
The ultimate result is that the agreement on
Kosovo will be written by foreign diplomats, without a substantive
role of Serbia. Vučić’s regime and the opposition (with lesser
responsibility but in an equal manner) are depriving Serbia of
influence on the decision that deeply concerns national interests.
The US and the EU, of course, know that changes in
BiH and Kosovo are high-risk operations. They will not make the
mistake of conducting them without first weakening those who, for
fear of losing their power, can sabotage changes by lighting fires
in the region. Therefore the first cracks in the grandiose Vučić’s
media image outside and inside of Serbia begin to appear. Cracks
begin to show in Vučić’s own party, too – Nebojša Stefanović (for
years, Vučić’s most trusted aide) is doing what Vučić, advised and
used to do in the extremist Serbian Radical Party before he split it
with other dissidents to establish the Serbian Progressive Party.
Surely, Vučić recognizes the scenario, working against him now.
No injustice inflicted there on Vučić – what
brought him up will pull him down. But the citizens of Serbia will
suffer – Vučić’s party captured their state and will leave it in
scraps. Not only economically, institutionally and legally, but also
emotionally – he deprived the nation of self-respect and hope.
Furthermore, Vučić will probably not behave like Kosovo’s Thaci and
resign from the presidential post to avoid dragging his country into
the dirt. No matter how hard one tries to differentiate between
Vučić’s regime and Serbia, when he gets under more serious
international criticism and, possibly, restrictive measures, that
will not be possible.
So, in the world’s eyes, Serbia will once again be
seen as a source of problems and a nation that, for the second time
in only two decades, allowed a destructive autocrat to gain a
position of unlimited power. Not yet fully recovered from the scars
left by Milosevic, Serbia will get new ones. From a symbol of
freedom, anti-fascism, vitality and capacity to stand united with
South Slavic peoples in a strong and prosperous alliance, to a
powerless, excommunicated, humiliated and problematic country that
has lost its sense of direction and lags behind – the picture will
be daunting and generations of Serbians will carry its shadow as a
burden. No one can harm Serbian national interests as Serbian
nationalists can.
There is a better way. Serbia should identify
itself within the trinity of 1) universal human and civil values, 2)
positive elements of our national identity, and 3) Western political
culture. We are first human beings and free individuals, citizens
with dignity and responsibilities to ourselves and the world we live
in. Then we are the Serbs – a freedom-loving, friendly, and brave
Slavic nation. Finally, we firmly belong to the civilization of
Western democracies!
Saint Sava pointed Serbian religion (and partly
spirituality) to the East, towards our Orthodox Slavic brothers. But
his brother Stefan, the first crowned ruler of Serbia, not
accidentally and not without an agreement with his brother, firmly
oriented the Serbian state towards the West. In 1217 he sought and
received the first Serbian crown from the Pope, not from the
Patriarch in the East (which was an option at the time). Such are
the foundations of our identity, which is still the direction for
our progress. Every detour costs us lost generations and
underdevelopment. Shortcomings of Western democracy, which we speak
of constantly as “sour grapes,” we can improve upon only after we
master its basics. We must work honestly and never again look for
shortcuts. Long live Serbia!
*The proposal included the following:
1. Serbia agrees with (and in fact actively
supports) the membership of Kosovo in all international
organizations, including the UN. Serbia will not ask for any
restrictions or create any obstacles for Kosovo to fully avail
itself of every right, obligation, or interest arising from such
membership. This attitude of Serbia does not mean and can not be
used as proof that it formally recognizes the independence of
Kosovo, nor Serbia will be conditioned in any way to do so.
2. The sites of the Serbian Orthodox Church of
major historical and religious importance (the key monasteries and
churches) shall be given extraterritorial status and left to be
self-governed by the Church authorities (similar to the examples of
monasteries in Mount Athos in Greece, or the Vatican in Rome).
3. Local self-governance in North Mitrovica and
the Association of Serbian Municipalities shall be established, not
to be used to the detriment of the authority of Pristina over the
whole territory of Kosovo.
4. Individual and collective human rights of Serbs
shall be guaranteed at the highest level.
5. Property rights shall be guaranteed in line
with international norms and standards.
6. The Agreement shall be valid for 30 years. If
before the expiry of that term a new one is not reached, it shall be
automatically prolonged for the next 30 years, and so on.
|
