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Although President-elect Joe Biden is proclaiming
unity as his overarching goal, the storming of Congress on Jan. 6
may be the harbinger of an accelerating slide toward political
disunion and potential state fracture.
In the most optimistic scenario, the failed
insurrection brought America back from the brink of chaos and even
civil war. The storming of Congress failed to intimidate legislators
into annulling the presidential election results. Despite the
initial unpreparedness of the Capitol police, order was eventuality
restored and the potential kidnapping or assassination of
legislators prevented.
According to the positive thesis, the vast
majority of Americans will condemn the insurrectionists and most
Trump voters will grudgingly accept the legitimacy of Biden’s
election. Meanwhile, Trump’s political influence will erode, while
the Republican Party returns to its traditional core and sheds its
populist extremes.
But the key lesson of history is that to prevent
the worst outcome, one must first imagine it. In an alternative
pessimistic scenario, America’s deep socio-political divisions prove
irreconcilable. Federal institutions and the three branches of
government forfeit their legitimacy among a substantial minority of
the population egged on by Trump and his allies, who will continue
to control the Republican Party or its political successor.
American democracy cannot function if one of its
two major parties rejects the role of loyal opposition and seeks to
paralyze federal decisions. National polarization can be further
widened if the incoming Democrats lurch leftward regardless of
centrist and conservative opposition and if the new administration
cannot work with congressional Republicans. “Progressive” leftist
Democrats also bear some culpability for the escalating divisions in
American society, having tolerated violent elements of antifa,
promoted a dangerous “defund the police” narrative and enabled Trump
to portray the incoming administration as the lackeys of radical
socialists.
Violent conflicts can explode even where both
sides believe they are defending democracy. The rioters who stormed
Congress were convinced that their votes were stolen and their
leaders cheated out of office. If they cannot be persuaded
otherwise, then the pot of rebellion will continue to boil.
The political meltdown will embolden
anti-government militias and street fighters, whether from the
socialist left, the nationalist right or the hodge-podge of
anti-government movements. If such movements are encouraged and
manipulated by demagogues, violent clashes will spread and may be
accompanied by bombings and terrorism.
In the midst of armed conflict, Republicans and
Democrats could seek to oust their political opponents from some
state governments and legislatures. Spreading insurrection and
lawlessness could also be seized upon by rightist or leftist leaders
to recruit local police in restoring law and order as a cover for
establishing “ideologically cleansed” administrations. Federal
authorities would either be too paralyzed to intervene or incapable
of handling several simultaneous crises.
Local insurrections could also animate calls for
separation and partition. Once there is major bloodshed in the midst
of mayhem, territorial partition and population exchanges between
majority blue and red states may emerge as a feasible solution that
could restore peace and functioning governments. Various division
options could then be voiced, whether a loose confederation with a
weak central government or the full separation of several states and
the creation of two North American countries.
Although such a scenario may be dismissed as a
nightmarish impossibility, human behavior in conditions of economic
distress, political chaos and social paranoia invariably exceeds our
imaginations. We cannot assume that the bloody lessons of the 20th
century, from violent state ruptures and world wars to the Holocaust
and the Gulag, have been learned and will not be imitated in the
21st century. Neither representative democracy nor state integrity
can be taken for granted, and even the strongest democracies will be
tested.
We will discover over the coming weeks and months
the durability of America’s institutions, the commitment of elected
politicians and the trust of America’s citizens in a unitary and
democratic United States.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the
Jamestown Foundation in Washington D.C. His recent book, “Eurasian
Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks,” is co-authored with Margarita
Assenova. His upcoming book is entitled “Failed State: Planning for
Russia’s Rupture.”
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