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The struggle between Western powers and Russia
over the Balkan Peninsula is heating up, with a predatory China
seeking to benefit from the turmoil.
The new government in Montenegro, established in
December 2020, was viewed in Western capitals as a fresh start to
eliminate corruption and enable Montenegro to make faster progress
toward EU membership. Instead, the new administration has become
increasingly vulnerable to Moscow’s agenda. The Kremlin views the
Balkans as a strategic asset and a stepping stone to the Adriatic
and Mediterranean. It seeks to preclude Western unity and undermine
the role of multinational organizations. Fomenting conflict in
Montenegro not only contributes to unsettling the region, it also
provides an opportunity to subvert a new NATO state and discredit
the alliance for other prospective members.
The Kremlin is benefiting from the nonacceptance
of Montenegro’s national identity and independent statehood by the
Serbian government. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is scheming
for a Serbia-Montenegro Union, modeled on Putin’s drive for a
Russia-Belarus Union, with Montenegro as the junior partner. The
strongest political force in Montenegro’s coalition government, the
Democratic Front, is committed to reversing the country’s
independence and collaborates with Belgrade to forge tighter links
with Serbia. The Russian connection with the new government is
becoming clearer. Montenegro’s appeals court has revoked the
sentences of militants who sought to overthrow the Montenegrin
government after the October 2016 elections under the direction of
Russian intelligence services. In essence, this was a failed attempt
to disqualify Montenegro from NATO membership by generating chaos
and violence.
Montenegro’s security sector also remains prone to
Moscow’s penetration. Milan Knezevic, leader of the Democratic Front
and involved in the 2016 coup plot, was appointed chairman of
parliament’s Security and Defense Committee. Other security
appointments appear to be coordinated with Belgrade and Moscow.
Serbia and Russia are also targeting Montenegro’s strategic assets,
including plans to purchase the port of Bar and the country’s
electric company. The Kremlin campaigns to keep all states out of
the alliance and thereby reduce American influence. Where it fails
to prevent enlargement, it intensifies efforts to weaken NATO from
within. Its growing presence in Hungary and Bulgaria demonstrates
how Russian officials strive to undermine the cohesion of the
Western alliance. Joining NATO strengthens state security but it
does not ensure immunity from foreign political and economic
leverage against alliance interests.
China also plays a valuable role for Russia in the
Balkans by sabotaging democratic development in pursuit of regional
economic dependence through debt traps and infrastructure takeovers.
To boost its political influence, the Kremlin favors unresolved
conflicts and disputed states in the Balkans. It helps the
autonomist government in Bosnia’s Serb entity to keep the country
divided and encourages Bosnian Croats to push for a third
territorial unit. In Kosovo, which Russia blocks from U.N.
membership, the Serbian minority is exploited to fan internal
conflicts. North Macedonia's domestic turmoil and its obstructed
path toward the Euuropean Union has also been exploited by Moscow.
Montenegro presents another opportunity for destabilization, in
which the media, two Russian intelligence services, and the Russian
Orthodox Church can assist their Serbian counterparts to challenge
Montenegro’s independence.
Although the Biden administration has more
immediate foreign policy priorities, neglecting simmering conflicts
in the Balkans can have devastating consequences, as the wars in the
1990s demonstrated. Moreover, by thwarting Russia and China in the
Balkans, Washington can send a powerful signal that the ambitions of
both anti-American protagonists will be confronted on a global
scale. Such an approach can also generate bipartisan support in
Congress. An effective policy would counteract pannational projects
that threaten the independence of any Balkan state. The most
destabilizing hazard is Vucic’s pan-Serbianism, which weakens the
statehood of Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo. A
three-pronged approach is needed. First, the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue
can be intensified in line with Biden’s recent letter to Vucic
calling for mutual state recognition. Second, a multinational
initiative should be launched to implement essential constitutional
changes in Bosnia-Herzegovina to develop a fully functioning state.
And third, Vucic must be warned that interference in Montenegro’s
politics will rebound negatively against Serbia’s progress toward
Western institutions, especially as Belgrade continues to
collaborate with both Russia and China.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the
Jamestown Foundation in Washington. His recent book, Eurasian
Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, is co-authored with Margarita
Assenova. His forthcoming book is "Failed State: Planning for
Russia’s Rupture."
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