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There is a spectre haunting Europe, the spectre of partition, as
authoritarian populists in the region and in the European Union
itself have sought to expand the realm of the possible to include a
final regional carve-up that would not only be detrimental to the
region, but would demonstrate that the EU itself is on a downward
trajectory, moving far away from the goals of a continent that is
whole, free and at peace.
In spite of all the denials and disclaimers, it seems clear that the
non-paper "Western Balkans – a way forward" – a document that
explicitly proposes the redrawing of borders in the region according
to ethno-national/territorial groupings – exists, though its origins
and intent remain in doubt.
It was billed as having been promulgated by Slovenian prime minister
Janez Janša; Albanian prime minister Edi Rama confirmed he was
consulted about it.
In addition, the confirmation and later denial of having received
the document by the office of the president of the European Council
points in the same direction, indicating that the EU institutions
were in fact presented with it.
Such ideas and agendas never left the minds of ambitious nationalist
ideologies, but they resurface with virulent danger because the EU
and the US have not demonstrated sufficiently strategic,
constructive and credible engagement in the region for a decade and
a half.
This most recent paper could be a more serious project than many
would like to think, playing to Russia's advantage. New chaos in the
Balkans seems to suits Moscow.
Donald Trump's rise, his transactional worldview, his contempt for
liberal values, and his general disinterest in the Balkans was taken
as a cue by regional leaders to pursue their own illiberal interests
without artifice or restraint.
It led to the embrace of the proposed partition of Kosovo already in
2016, resurfacing in 2018 marketed with euphemistic labels ("land
swap," "demarcation," or"border correction"), but not camouflaging
their wider intentions.
This was the final straw for a West's zombie policy in the region –
the borders of the Western Balkan states was the only real stable
element, and they were by implication as a whole guaranteed by the
settlements at Dayton, Kumanovo, Ohrid, and the Montenegrin
independence referendum.
Elite nationalist agendas never disappeared in the Balkans; they had
been suppressed and deterred by a West that hoped the EU enlargement
process would obviate the need for deterrence.
In the meantime, the EU's transformational potential decreased,
liberal values lost primacy and local leaders took advantage of the
strategic vacuum left by the West to deploy their manipulative
policies.
The global crisis of democratic liberalism laid bare the fragility
of democracies – including in the western Balkans. They increasingly
turned to illiberal practices, growing authoritarianism and all
forms of (conservative) far-right populism.
The standard definition of stupidity: Repeating the same
unsuccessful procedures, hoping that they will produce a different
result.
At this point in time the only really stable element in terms of
relations among the Balkan states are the borders.
Even very minor changes and disputes, real or fabricated, produced
long-term and complicated disputes.
Prejudicial tropes
In addition, the non-paper is unhelpful for the prejudicial and
orientalist tropes it perpetuates.
Bosnia-Herzegovina is not a state of Islamic fundamentalism, nor a
Turkish proxy.
This is a myth and a lie perpetuated by violent nationalists since
the earliest days of wartime ethnic cleansing, seeking to justify
their own territorial ambitions, while also creating an "us and the
other" aimed to implode the formerly diverse country.
Although nobody expects that the redrawing of borders in the Balkans
is realistic at this point in time – nor that it could be done
without bloodshed or massive population movements – the infamous
non-paper has in a way already achieved its purpose by setting a bar
for the most extreme and outlandish idea.
By suggesting a future defined by a shrivelled and land-locked
Bosnia-Herzegovina, an amputated North Macedonia and a Kosovo
grafted onto Albania, one can see that either the authors don't
envision an EU future for these countries, or see a future of an EU
that is more nationalist/populist and less value-based itself.
No EU future?
Yet once on paper, what was unthinkable before, is a picture in
people's minds today.
Do the Balkan states have serious problems? Yes. Are they driven
more by poor governance and self-serving and corrupt elites? Of
course. Should we start solving these problems with the help of an
active involvement of international anti-chaos alliance? Absolutely.
But giving in to the chauvinist passions of the worst among the
Balkan politicians cannot assist in this process. It would be like
trying to deal with race-relations through apartheid.
One should make no mistake: The non-paper is not a proposal for the
last step in dissolution of Yugoslavia, but the first step in a plan
for the dissolution of the EU.
The challenge of fostering a conducive environment for citizens in
the Western Balkans to develop functioning, prosperous democracies
is within the West's capacity to meet, if it can summon the vision
and will.
These remain lacking to date.
The general disposition of US president Joe Biden is clear on
values; we have yet to see this demonstrated convincingly in
practice in the Western Balkans.
The EU also has strong values assets, but these have been devalued
through inattention, lack of leadership, and avowed illiberalism in
the EU's own ranks.
The West's comparative advantages vis á vis authoritarian
geopolitical challengers begin with liberal democratic values,
followed by relative security and economic preponderance. Balkan
leaders know this, but have never had to pay a price for radically
deviating from democratic norms or advocating dangerous irridentism.
Serbia's president Aleksandar Vučić has been the greatest
beneficiary of the West's rudderlessness, taking full advantage
through a policy of arbitrage and regional power politics.
Given the EU's current interregnum – the end of the Merkel era in
Germany and France's president Emmanuel Macron leaning ever
rightward – there is no critical mass among member states to align
on foreign policy matters.
Therefore, the US must once again take a leadership role in rallying
the West around a new strategic policy to ensure peace, progress,
and prosperity in the Western Balkans. |
