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The US is on a collision course with China and Russia over both
ideology and influence. As a liberal democracy, the US system of
government is antithetical to the authoritarian model of government
in China and Russia, both egregious violators of human rights. Far
from the “peaceful rise” proclaimed by Premier Xi Jinping, China in
tandem with Russia is fomenting conflict in the Western Balkans, the
South China Sea, and Ukraine – proving grounds of America’s resolve.
Fraternity between China and Russia dates back to the founding of
the Chinese Communist Party, CPC, 100 years ago. China’s Communists
were inspired by the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and its consolidation
across the vast Russian Empire. Likewise, Communist China was born
in the cauldron of conflict. CPC cadres vanquished both the Japanese
occupation and nationalist forces of Chiang Kai-shek. Chinese troops
were deployed to the Korean peninsula in 1950. China was also at war
with itself, during the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s. China
assumed leadership of the Communist world when the Soviet Union
collapsed in 1991. Russia is a world power in decline; China is on
the rise. Xi and Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, are united in
their sense of historic humiliation by Great Powers and opposition
to the West.
Neither China nor Russia wants to directly confront the US. For now,
they foment conflicts out of the spotlight and in cyberspace. Their
goal is to deny universal values of freedom and democracy, while
undermining US leadership and western institutions such as NATO and
the EU. After the Biden-Putin summit, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov warned: “Your hegemony is over. Your rules don’t
apply.”
China and Russia will continue to test the limits of their power
until they are stopped. When the bayonet meets flesh, it plunges
deeper. Xi recently warned that those who try to block China’s
ascent will be met with a “wall of steel”. Were his remarks a
warning to the West, or for domestic consumption? Xi’s reputation
has been tarnished by his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. China’s
economic miracle is slowing down, its economy growing just 6.6 per
cent in 2018, the lowest rate in 28 years. Its population is ageing,
further slowing economic development. The CPC is comprised of
elites, hardly representative of 1.4 billion Chinese.
Ukraine meanwhile is a flashpoint for conflict escalation between
Russia and the West. Russia supports separatist militias in Donbas,
in southeast Ukraine. It recently escalated tension by confronting
HMS Defender, a British warship sailing in international waters near
Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Britain does not recognize Russia’s illegal annexation of the
Crimea, or its claim to Ukrainian territorial waters in the Black
Sea. According to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, “The important
point is that we don’t recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea.
This is part of a sovereign Ukrainian territory, it was entirely
right that we should vindicate the law [of the sea] and pursue
freedom of navigation in the way that we did.”
Russia’s response was swift, including military and diplomatic
reprisals. Russian war planes allegedly fired warning shots during
the Defender’s passage through the Crimean coastal corridor. Moscow
summoned the British ambassador, warning of additional measures if
British ships continued to sail along the Crimean coast.
China is similarly confrontational. The South China Sea is an
energy-rich waterway through which $3.4 trillion in trade passes
annually. Control of maritime routes is not only critical to
commercial traffic, but to China’s growing navy that projects power
in the region. In violation of laws of the sea, Chinese navy vessels
rammed and sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat near the Paracel Islands
last year.
China is building navy bases, which it calls “research stations” on
Fiery Cross Reef, the Subi Reef, as well as military outposts on
shoals, reefs and rock outcroppings. In 2016, the Philippines
challenged China’s actions before the international Arbitral
Tribunal, which ruled in favor of the Philippines and nullified
China’s claim. China simply ignored the court’s finding, ratcheting
up tensions with the Philippines, Vietnam, the, Brunei, Malaysia and
Taiwan. China also confronts Japan over control of the Senkaku
Islands in the Sea of Japan.
The Obama administration responded with “freedom of navigation
operations”. US warships sailed within 12 nautical miles of disputed
islands without providing notification or seeking permission. By
upholding the Law of the Sea, the US implicitly opposes China’s
“might makes right approach.” The Biden administration has resumed
freedom of navigation operations. Will this be enough to deter
China’s maritime aggression?
The Western Balkans are also a dangerous flashpoint. Backed by
Russia, Serbia refuses to recognise that Kosovo is an independent
and sovereign state. It blocks Kosovo’s efforts to gain greater
global recognition by joining international organizations and
establishing diplomatic relations with other states.
Russia and Serbia have sought to intimidate Kosovo by establishing
military outposts near the Kosovo border. It claims that the base in
Nis, southern Serbia, is for a civil emergency response and
humanitarian operations. The base is actually used to gather
intelligence on Western activities. Serbia has established 11 more
military facilities near Serbia’s border with Kosovo. This show of
force is intended to deter Kosovo’s efforts to join NATO and gain
recognition by all EU member states. Russia backed a coup against
the governments of North Macedonia and Montenegro when they sought
NATO membership.
Negotiators from Serbia and Kosovo have been meeting for more than
10 years. They resumed their dialogue in Brussels on June 15, 2021.
Serbia picked that day for a major military exercise involving
15,000 troops using Russian equipment, such as T-72M tanks, MIG-29
war planes and Mi35 attack helicopters. Weaponized drones acquired
from China were also a part of the exercise. “Operation Lightning
Strike” was a warning for Kosovo to abandon its goal of
Euro-Atlantic integration. China’s expanding footprint is also
agrowing concern.
Vucic refuses to recognize that Serbia lost Kosovo due to Slobodan
Milosevic’s crimes. A free, independent and pro-Western Kosovo will
never rejoin Serbia. As Kosovo readies for the next phase of its
dialogue with Serbia, there is a growing clamor to abandon talks
until the Nis base and Russian military facilities are closed.
Kosovo’s leaders cannot show up in Brussels with a gun held to their
heads. Nor can they negotiate independence, which was already
recognized by more than 110 countries.
China and Russia work in tandem in the Balkans. Serbia is a major
beneficiary of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In exchange, Serbia
supports China’s crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong, its human
rights abuses in Xinjang, and tough stance towards Taiwan. Vucic
threatens the EU by officially supporting steps to elevate
Serbia-China relations and expanding military cooperation.
The Russian Intelligence Agency, GRU, is active in Serbia and
worldwide. The US Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity
and Infrastructure Security Agency confirms that the GRU spies on US
government agencies and industries. The GRU was likely behind the
ransomware attack, targeting Colonial Pipeline that transports oil,
gas, and jet fuel to the East Coast. Russia also used malware to
disrupt the 2016 US election system, including voter registration
and voting machines. Russia is behind malign influence operations
that seek to exacerbate divisions in American society, thereby
weakening America’s unity and resolve.
The US cannot turn a blind eye to coordinated aggression from China
and Russia. It should work multilaterally to expand naval operations
in the South China Sea. It should also support freedom of navigation
in the Black Sea by supporting Britain’s naval exercises. Toughening
sanctions would show that the US and its allies have zero tolerance
for Russian aggression against Ukraine.
When it comes to Kosovo, the US is at a fork in the road. The
Kosovo-Serbia dialogue is a charade. If the US wants it to work, it
should appoint a Special Presidential Envoy to mediate. It can
coerce Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to recognize Kosovo by
threatening to freeze the offshore assets of Vucic and his brother.
Talks cannot be about the status of Kosovo. They must focus on the
status of Kosovo-Serbia relations as independent and sovereign
states. To show that it means business, the US should demand the
closure of the Nis base and other Russian military facilities in
Serbia, while imposing an arms embargo on Serbia. Spies at the
Chinese and Russian embassies, operating as political officers,
should be evicted.
China and Russia are strategic adversaries of the US. They are
testing America’s resolve worldwide. To avoid a major military
confrontation in the future, the US must firmly oppose provocations
today. No more wishful thinking or happy talk about a reset in US
relations. Now is the time to confront China and Russia, exacting a
price for their malign activities. |
