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Sensing weakness in the Biden administration, the Kremlin may be
preparing to ignite new conflicts in the western Balkans. The recent
border dispute between Kosovo and Serbia over the recognition of car
license plates looks like a test run for more serious
confrontations.
Russian officials are encouraging the government of President
Aleksandar Vucic to make Serbia the dominant power in the Western
Balkans and increase Russia’s leverage with Washington and Brussels.
Serbia organized a blockade along the frontier with Kosovo in
September, placed its troops on alert, and threatened military
intervention. Russia’s Ambassador Aleksander Botsan-Kharchenko
accompanied Serbia’s Defense Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic to inspect
Serbian army units. While Kosovo sent a police detachment to
implement license plate requirements, Serbia deployed military
vehicles along the border and flew MiG-29 fighter jets over the
area.
Belgrade and Moscow accuse the Kosovo government of threatening the
existence of the Serbian minority. The Kremlin has consistently used
such claims about Russian populations in its revisionist enterprises
in Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltic States. Russia is now
instructing its "younger brother" Serbia on the methodology of
regional dominance and territorial partition.
In one scenario, Serbian intelligence operatives can provoke
interethnic confrontations inside Kosovo and use the ensuing
violence as a pretext for military intervention. This would place
the small NATO force in Kosovo in a difficult position against the
Serbian military. By supporting the Serb incursion and threatening
to provide direct military assistance if NATO engages, Putin would
test Biden’s resolve in risking a NATO-Russia war. Putin may
calculate that Washington would prefer negotiations even if it means
surrendering Kosovo's northern municipalities. Kosovo is not a NATO
member and cannot rely on the organization’s collective defense
commitments.
The Kosovo gamble would be part of a wider offensive by Belgrade
with Russian guidance to expand its regional position. According to
Serbian Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin, all Serbs have the right
to be united in one state. Just like Russians, the Serbs are
portrayed as the long-suffering victims that hostile powers are
conspiring to eliminate. Belgrade claims the right to protect Serbs
in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and
Croatia. In addition to destabilizing Kosovo, Belgrade’s current
focus is on deepening Bosnia’s divisions and enabling the Serb
entity (Republika Srpska) within Bosnia's sovereign borders to
threaten secession. It also collaborates with Serb nationalists in
Montenegro’s coalition government to reverse Montenegro’s
independence and pro-Western policies.
While Vucic is seeking glory as a uniter of "Serbian lands," Putin
manipulates him to serve Russia’s geopolitical goals. Vucic is
permanently indebted to Russia for blocking Kosovo’s entry into the
United Nations. Serbia’s economic dependence on Russia is expanding,
particularly in the energy field by joining the new natural gas link
via Bulgaria and Turkey. Serbia is also being groomed as a Russian
military outpost and has been armed with warplanes, tanks, and
anti-aircraft systems, including the recent addition of Russia’s
Pantsir-S1s. The Russo-Serbian "humanitarian center" close to the
Kosovo border serves as an intelligence-gathering and special
operations facility for Moscow. And Serbia is developing close links
with the Russia-controlled Collective Security Treaty Organization
intended as a counterpart to NATO.
Serbia is fast becoming Russia’s Balkan hostage. Moscow is adamant
that any Serbian moves toward NATO accession will not be tolerated
and could result in the replacement of Vucic. Kremlin support for
assorted nationalist groups, its extensive influence in Serbia’s
information space, its close ties with the Orthodox Church, and its
espionage penetration of key institutions are all intended to keep
Vucic in check.
Serbia provides a valuable opportunity for Putin to stir armed
conflicts in a still volatile Balkan region. This would expand
Russia’s influence, distract attention from other conflicts it
engineers, and disguise the intensifying crackdown on dissent at
home. At some point, Vucic could be enticed into a military
confrontation with one of Serbia’s neighbors and appeal to Moscow
for assistance.
With the European Union rudderless and the United States focused on
other international crises, the Kremlin would calculate that the
reduced risk of Western military intervention may be worth taking. |
