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The EU is like playing in the Champions League, one official in
Brussels said recently. Not, they claimed pointedly, a more minor
domestic competition.
The message being that it isn't easy to win membership.
For years Western Balkans states have tried to climb the accession
ladder into the EU.
Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen conceded at a summit in
Slovenia on Wednesday that the long wait was causing "impatience"
and "frustration".
The lack of a decision on even opening negotiations with North
Macedonia and Albania was "jeopardising our standing and leverage in
the region", she warned.
She was at pains to stress: "We want the Western Balkans in the
European Union."
The Slovenian gathering involved family photos, lunch and all the
usual pageantry, where EU leaders met their counterparts from
Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, the Republic of
North Macedonia and Kosovo.
But it wasn't a decision summit on enlargement, rather a
"reaffirmation" of ties.
Mrs von der Leyen said that, while there had been progress by Balkan
states, there was more to do on fighting corruption and economic
reforms.
European Council President Charles Michel conceded it was no secret
that the 27 member states weren't in agreement about the bloc's
capacity to take on new members.
Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia all have "candidate
status", although some nations are more advanced in the process than
others. Bosnia is still a potential candidate, while Kosovo is not
even recognised as a state by some EU members.
Countries are tested on their ability to align with a large body of
rules and standards, divided into 35 chapters. It's never a simple
process.
But these four candidates have formed a queue that now dates back to
the early noughties.
One of the most recent stumbling blocks: a language dispute between
EU member state Bulgaria and North Macedonia.
University of Oxford EU politics lecturer Eli Gateva says the
accession process can be "held hostage to domestic politics".
Following previous rapid expansions, enlargement has in some cases,
she says, become "another word for immigration - and this can be
fuel for far-right parties".
France and the Netherlands are often named as among the most
cautious EU member states when it comes to enlargement.
The EU is, after all, already wrestling with serious issues among
existing member states, principally Poland and Hungary, on the
all-important "rule of law".
So the case is made that the EU needs to sort out the structural
issues within its own house before building on that extension.
Wednesday's summit statement went no further than "reconfirming" the
bloc's commitment to enlargement, and even that took some haggling.
However, the Commission president was keen to point out that those
words had made it into paragraph one of the declaration.
While the political process may appear painfully slow, money is fast
being poured into the region with billions in grant funding.
Andi Hoxhaj, a scholar in EU Law at the University of Warwick, calls
it an "economy first" approach. The idea being that if you integrate
countries economically, the politics may follow.
Mrs von der Leyen already spent last week love-bombing the region,
covering six countries in three days.
Following a phone call between the Commission chief and the US
President this week, Joe Biden also expressed "strong support for
continuing the accession process with countries in this region".
That is because the Western Balkans, which suffered so much in the
bloody wars of the 1990s, are strategically important to the
European Union.
"It's not our backyard, it's our front yard," one EU diplomat told
me: and you want your front yard "clean and neat".
"If we are not going to be in the region, someone else will fill the
void."
Eli Gateva agrees: "We have other foreign actors trying to vie for
influence in this region such as China, Russia and Turkey."
Ask around and there can be huge reticence to name a date as to when
the candidate countries might finally get an official seat around
the EU table.
Slovenia, which holds the European Council presidency, reportedly
(and unsuccessfully) urged the EU to commit to admitting the Western
Balkan states by 2030.
The Slovenians believe there needs to be a strong political message
to reassure the region that enlargement is still a priority; they
see hopes of accession as a vital spur for candidate countries to
tackle corruption and pursue judicial reforms.
An EU official remarked this week that the door wasn't "closed", but
it certainly isn't gaping open either.
The danger is those countries in the waiting room start to look at
other options, and the European Union's quest to project power
fades. |
