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Last month’s threat by Serb political boss Milorad Dodik is fading
into the holiday mist. No one who watches Bosnian poitics should
relax. He has made it clear his goal is de facto secession of
Republika Srpska. This regional entity’s authority extends to 49% of
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territory.
Dodik is moving small step by small step. Each time he slices the
salami to get closer to what he wants. Last month the RS National
Assembly convened to begin planning for withdrawal starting in six
months from Bosnia’s security, justice, and taxation institutions.
These were all established in the aftermath of the 1992-95 war that
ended in the Dayton peace agreements. American efforts “to walk
Bosnia back from the cliff” at least made Dodik stop at the edge.
The plan is to eviscerate the minimal Bosnian state
He is unlikely to step much farther back or to declare independence.
Dodik’s plan is to eviscerate the Bosnian state, minimal though it
is. He wants the RS to withdraw from Sarajevo’s vital institutions
under a veil of legislative approval. He would then be all-powerful
and unaccountable in his own fief. Failing that, he wants his threat
of secession to prevent any further strengthening of Sarajevo
governance.
Russia will support Dodik’s moves and try to protect him. Moscow is
already denying the authority of the High Representative in Bosnia,
who is responsible for civilian implementation of the Dayton
agreements. Serbian President Vucic will be more circumspect, as he
fears EU and US disapproval. But his minions, including Interior
Minister Vulin, cheer more openly. The RS is an important component
of what they call the “Serbian world.” That would be a Greater
Serbian state incorporating neighboring Serb populations.
The ethnic authoritarian paladin
Dodik is the embodiment of the ethnic authoritarian ideal. He
started political life as a relative moderate in the Bosnian
context. But he has become a denier of crimes (including genocide)
the RS committed during the 1990s war. He is now a champion of Serb
exceptionalism, a subservient puppet of Moscow, and a deeply
corrupted pocketer of ill-gotten gains. The Dayton agreements divide
the Bosnian pie along ethnic lines. That reduces political
competition and incentivizes predatory behavior. Most people in
Washington and Brussels understand that Dodik is irredeemable. So
their diplomats work hard instead to get Serbian President Vucic to
restrain him, offering mostly carrots and few sticks.
That is no longer working as well as once it did. Like his
genocidaire predecesssor Radovan Karadzic, Dodik regards himself as
a political competitor to Vucic in Belgrade, not just a provincial
party chief in Banja Luka. The time is coming for a showdown between
these Serb paladins.
Vucic is unquestionably more powerful, but Dodik is more useful to
the Russians. They would regard de facto RS secession as a useful
precedent and bargaining chip for breakaway provinces in Ukraine,
Moldova and Georgia. Moscow would also enjoy derailing a Western
triumph of the 1990s unipolar moment: the negotiated end of the
Bosnian war.
What is to be done?
Dodik is making it impossible for the US and EU to continue ignoring
his moves towards de facto independence. The question is: what can
they do about it? Next time he slices the salami, how should they
react?
First, the EU and US need to nullify any decisions in the RS
Assembly that contradict the Dayton accords and subsequent decisions
of the High Representative. This the HiRep can do with the stroke of
a pen. But then what? How do his decisions get enforced?
Once upon a time, the HiRep would not have hesitated to remove Dodik
from office. But is that any longer feasible? Another possibility is
his arrest for insurrection against the Bosnian state, of which he
is blatantly guilty. But Bosnia’s prosecutors seem unwilling and
likely incapable of doing that.
The US and EU will need to act
If nothing can be done inside Bosnia, then the burden falls to
Washington, Brussels, and European capitals (if the EU fails to act
jointly). They will need to levy punishing sanctions on Dodik
personally, all members of the RS Assembly who vote for withdrawal
from Bosnian institutions, and the RS institutionally, including an
end to all World Bank and IMF as well as bilateral assistance and
access to international financial markets. If the RS has de facto
seceded from Bosnia, it shoud not benefit from grants or loans
available to its sovereign. It would be rank hypocrisy to allow any
international financiing or official development assistance to reach
the RS.
There are other possible moves. Brussels and Washington could shut
down RS representational offices. The international military
presence, EUFOR, could move troops to the vital northeast town of
Brcko while the UK and US deploy NATO troops there, to prevent any
effort by either Sarajevo or Banja Luka to seize it. Want to make an
impression? The British and Americans could arrive in the hundreds
by parachute outside Banja Luka, in a NATO training exercise.
Dodik and any other politicians supporting de facto secession could
be barred from Sarajevo and any requirements for Serb approval of
Bosnian government actions there could be abrogated. Any funding for
the RS from Sarajevo could stop. Bosnia could revert to its pre-war
constitution, or devise a new one that erases the RS as well as the
Federation and its cantons, relying on municipalities for local
governance.
Dodik should not be ignored
This is an illustrative, not an exhaustive, list of options, not
recommendations. The main point is that Brussels and Washington
should no longer downplay or ignore Dodik’s moves. If they do,
patriotic Bosnians, who were the main victims of the 1992-95 war,
will take matters into their own hands, seizing Brcko before Dodik
does.
That too, would mark a failure of Dayton, but one that would
preserve the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as well
as its multi-ethnicity. For anyone thinking democracy is a
preferable system of government, it would be better than secession
by genocide-denying political and ideological successors to Radovan
Karadzic, bent on ethnic authoritarian rule with Moscow’s support
and on creation of Milosevic’s Greater Serbia. |
