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I can do no better than the OSCE in evaluating Serbia’s presidential
and parliamentary elections. They were conducted on an “uneven
playing field” that favored the incumbent President and
parliamentary majority. Media coverage and government resources
favored them. There was not much more than a token opposition.
Alternation in power was not a real possibility. Serbia has reverted
to semi-authoritarianism of a contemporary sort. Lots of political
brouhaha, but little real competition.
Serbia’s shame
This is a shame, as it make Serbia a less than ideal candidate for
what it says it really wants: EU membership. The EU will be lenient.
That is its longstanding habit with Belgrade, which has the great
virtue of implementing much of the acquis communautaire. Where
Serbia is wanting is implementation of the Cophenhagen criteria for
democratic governance.
Not only is its electoral playing field uneven, but Belgrade
continues to laud war criminals and fails to prosecute human rights
violations during the now more than two-decade-old conflict in
Kosovo. It hasn’t even prosecuted the murderers of the American
Bytyqi brothers killed in Serbia in 1999. Its press not only ignores
past Serbian human rights violations but continues to use hate
speech against Kosovars.
In addition, the incumbent government coalition has been
enthusiastic for what it terms the “Serb world,” which amounts to
little less than Slobodan Milosevic’s Greater Serbia. We see in
Ukraine the consequences of irredentist ambitions of this sort.
Russian President Putin is likewise fond of the idea of a “Russian
world” that denies the sovereignty and territorial integrity of
Ukraine. The result is war and war crimes. The “Serbian world” idea
forebodes nothing better. It is a clear and present danger to Bosnia
and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo.
Vucic won his first presidency on a pro-EU platform. He won the
second on a pro-Russian one. He has refused to join in sanctions
against Russia, while paying lip service to Ukraine’s territorial
integrity. It’s a pretty trick, if you can pull it off.
Success entails choices
Still, there is little reason to doubt that President Vucic has the
support of the majority of the Serbian electorate. The question is
what he will do with his electoral success. He can continue to
encourage Serbian world fantasies, or he can decide to make Serbia
into a serious candidate for EU membership. The latter will take
courage. Vucic’s main political competition comes from ethnic
nationalism and ultra-nationalism, not from liberal democrats. The
nationalists are not only a political threat, but also a physical
one. They killed Prime Minister Djindjic for fear he would give
Kosovo away. They could kill again.
Tough choices in Kosovo too
Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti likewise has strong political support.
He faces a domestic political scene that generally opposes
concessions to Belgrade. He too needs to choose whether to take the
political risk of reaching an agreement that will entail compromise
with the enemy. The EU, which has been ungenerous to Kosovo in
denying it a visa waiver program, complicates his calculus. Whether
Brussels would reward Kosovo for an agreement with Serbia is
doubtful, not least because countries like France, the Netherlands,
and above all Hungary are hostile to Pristina. Promises made might
not be kept, as with the visa waiver.
The nice thing about winning elections
Both Vucic and Kurti are now in a position to make choices. I really
don’t know what they will do. If the past is a guide, neither will
pursue a definitive agreement that ends the standoff between
Pristina and Belgrade. But the past is only a guide if people don’t
change their minds. We’ll have to wait and see. The nice thing about
winning even unfair elections is that you can do what you want. |
