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Senator Murphy of Connecticut is just back from a quick trip to the
still troubled parts of the Balkans (Belgrade, Sarajevo, and
Pristina). He has written a literate and interesting account of the
trip. Would that all Codels could do likewise.
The Bosnia mistake
That said, I think he makes serious mistakes. Jasmin Mujatovic has
pointed out one on Twitter:
Very specifically, Sen. Murphy frames the scene in the Bosnian
presidency as a kind of war of each against all. Clearly, not the
case, as it’s Dzaferovic & Komsic attempting to hold the line vs.
Dodik’s constant provocations & threats, as D’s own subsequent
comments make clear. Bosnia is not a land on intractable, tribal
feuds. It’s a place where a decades-long attempt to break up the
country along sectarian lines by extremist actors, backed by
Belgrade primarily but now also Russia, is being necessarily
opposed. Let’s be clear about the politics of it.
Jasmin is also concerned that the Senator is too chummy with Serbian
President Vucic.
The Kosovo mistake
The root of that chumminess is clear in the Senator’s account: Vucic
often dines with Murphy when the President is in Washington. It
would be hard for Murphy to have the same relationship with Kosovo
Prime Minister Kurti, who is Vucic’s functional equivalent in
Kosovo. Kurti has not been permitted an official visit to Washington
since taking office. This is because Washington blames him for the
lack of progress in the dialogue with Belgrade. The Senator seems to
agree with that characterization.
I don’t. The only obstacle to achieving what the Senator identifies
as the main objective of the dialogue–mutual recognition by the two
sovereign and independent states–is Serbia’s refusal to consider the
proposition. The dialogue would just be a normal conversation
between neighbors except for that.
Irredentism in the Balkans is just as bad as in Ukraine
Serbia has offered only one alternative to mutual recognition:
Belgrade de jure control (either through a land swap or through an
Association of Serb Municipalities with executive powers) over the
Serb-majority population north of the Ibar river in Kosovo. This
irredentist ambition is just as dangerous in the Balkans as Russia’s
comparable ambition to control the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces of
Ukraine. And Serbia’s irredentism is less well-founded. The pre-war
population of the largest and most important municipalilty north of
the Ibar was not majority Serb. Most Serbs in Kosovo still live
south of the Ibar.
There is no sign in the Senator’s account of his visit to Belgrade
that he admonished Vucic for his territorial ambitions in Kosovo or
his support for Milorad Dodik’s secessionism in Bosnia and
Herzegovina. I hope that when he convenes his task force in the
Congress, the Senator will ensure that these issues are top priority
in the discussion. They should also be on the menu when he next
dines with President Vucic. The Senator needs to go deeper. |
