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The Balkans region is stagnating. Talks for normalization of
relations between Belgrade and Pristina have stalled. Belgrade,
after promising changes in its policy on Ukraine, is still siding
with Russia. Electoral reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina is a dead
letter. Montenegro has a new caretaker government whose mandate is
to prepare for elections a year hence. Bulgaria is blocking EU
accession negotiations with both Macedonia and Albania.
It could be worse
The law of bicycles prevails in the Balkans. If things aren’t
moving, balance is difficult and collapse more likely.
Serbia could try to copy Russia’s playbook, by claiming genocide
against Serbs in northern Kosovo as justification for a military
move to the Ibar River. Belgrade’s mobilization of its army in
response to a spat over license plates some months ago should serve
as a warning. Not to mention its substantial deployment of forces
along the boundary/border with Kosovo.
Bosnia’s Serb member of the collective presidency, Milorad Dodik,
could run out of the thin salami slices he has been taking to
deprive Sarajevo of sovereignty and try a big move like seizing
Brcko, the more or less autonomous northeastern Bosnian town that
links the two wings of Republika Srpska.
The Croat nationalists in Bosnia could try to constitute their own
entity and withdraw from the country’s central institutions. Unrest
in Macedonia could bring down a reform-minded, pro-EU government and
even precipitate interethnic conflict.
It could also be better
Sad to say, the idea of Europe “whole and free” is dying, not only
in Ukraine. In the Balkans, there are countries truly committed to a
liberal democratic, European future and some that aren’t. Under
today’s Alexandar Vucic, Serbia is not. Nor is Bosnia and
Herzegovina, all of whose ethnic nationalist political parties
oppose one person/one vote. Montenegro is on the fence, due largely
to russophilic, pro-Serb political parties and the Serbian Orthodox
Church, both of which have gotten a lot of traction lately.
Macedonia and Albania want to move in the European direction. It is
Bulgarian ethnic nationalism, which denies the existence of
Macedonian identity, that is creating problems.
Making things better will require a concerted European and American
effort to champion liberal democracy in the Balkans. There is no
reason for Bosnia and Herzegovina to have a tripartite presidency
and tripartite everything else more than 25 years after the war the
ethnic nationalists perpetrated on its territory. That is a
constitutional, not an electoral law, issue. Montenegro needs a
government that can retake the lead in pushing implementation of EU
requirements. Bulgaria needs to back off its obstruction of
accession talks with Macedonia and Albania. There will be plenty of
opportunity before those are complete to resolve the language and
identity issues.
The EU and US are aligned but not punching at their weight
To make good things happen in the Balkans has always required the US
and EU to be aligned. They now are. With Trump’s silly nonsense
gone, serious American and European negotiators are in charge again.
The current problem is the heavy lifting required is not readily
available. Europe is too divided. Five EU members don’t recognize
Kosovo. One, Hungary, is sympathetic to Russian and Serbian
nationalist goals. Another, Croatia, is blatantly interfering in
Bosnia’s internal affairs to benefit a political party it controls.
The Americans face a steep climb to get the President and Secretary
of State to pay more than lip service to Balkan issues, which fall
well down the list of priorities. NATO allies Hungary, Bulgaria and
Croatia need some high-level pounding.
Risks are real even if not imminent
The risks are real, but not necessarily imminent. NATO is presumably
alert to Serbian military moves. Dodik is on a shorter leash than at
times in the past. Serbia doesn’t want him to move toward Republika
Srpska independence, for fear of screwing up Belgrade’s cozy
relationship with Brussels and Washington. Bosnia’s electoral law is
still in force. If nationalist Croats boycott October’s vote, that
will be counterproductive for them in terms of representation and
might even offer an opportunity for constitutional reform, which is
really what is needed. Montenegro is capable of muddling through.
Macedonia and Albania could well use the delay Bulgaria has caused
to prepare themselves better to meet EU requirements, especially for
rule of law.
Washington and Brussels have decided to focus their immediate
attention on the Bulgaria/Macedonia issues. That is understandable,
as resolving (or postponing) those would enable both Macedonia and
Albania to proceed with EU accession negotiations and give a boost
to pro-EU forces throughout the Balkans. But it is not enough. The
US and EU need to improve their own performance in exacting better
diplomatic results in the Balkans across the board. I’m a professor.
B in the 21st century is not a good grade. |
