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Thin gruel is still progress
While Belgrade’s disclaimer suggests the larger
issues at stake, the agreement is pretty thin gruel. It is only half
the original problem, which also concerned license plates. These
will presumably continue to have their state symbols covered to
cross the border/boundary. We measure progress in the Balkans in
millimeters. Still: compliments to the diplomats involved–especially
EU negotiator Miroslav Lajcak and American Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State Gabe Escobar!
There is encouragement to be found in the method:
the US collaborated visibly with the EU. That kind of tandem effort
is responsible for most progress in the Balkans in the past three
decades. Balkanites will tell you nothing has changed. But there is
a deep chasm between genocide and ethnic cleansing and quarreling
over state symbols on license plates.
Zeno’s paradox applies
The reward for virtue is heightened expectations.
Energy is perhaps the next subject to tackle. The existing agreement
that enables a Kosovo subsidiary of a Serb firm to collect fees from
Serbs who live in the Belgrade-controlled north of Kosovo needs
implementation. It is common for people not to pay for utilities
during wartime. Twenty years of free electricity is at least a
decade too long. Kosovo Electric will also gain access to facilities
in the north.
This kind of step-by-step, incremental progress is
really what is needed right now. Neither President Vucic nor Prime
Minister Kurti is ready to make the compromises required for what
Balkanites call a “final” agreement between Pristina and Belgrade.
Vucic resists recognition. Kurti resists the creation of an
Association of Serb-majority Municipalities he thinks would violate
Kosovo’s sovereignty. The day will come, but in the fashion of
Zeno’s paradox. If you halve the distance between two human bodies
every year, they should never touch. But for practical purposes,
they do.
Not with Vucic however
“AVucic” is unlikely to be the signature on the
final agreement. He has turned definitively in the ethnonationalist
direction domestically and eastward internationally. While he still
mouths platitudes about seeking EU membership, he is far more
welcoming to Russia and China than to the EU and the US. Serbia has
steadfastly refused to levy sanctions on Russia for the invasion of
Ukraine and has welcomed the Chinese into its infrastructure,
including telecommunications. Vucic is capable of extraordinary
contradictions. As he renominated Serbia’s lesbian prime minister,
he also announced cancellation of Belgrade’s Europride celebration
in September.
Unfortunately, the West (that’s US, UK, and EU for
Balkan purposes) has come to treat Vucic on most days with kid
gloves, fearing that he will tilt even further east and doubting
that any better is available in today’s Serbia. But the agreement on
identity documents is a good lesson. Squeeze him hard and he yields.
I hope the West’s diplomats haven’t exhausted themselves–they are
going to have to continue to work hard to get both Vucic and Kurti
to yes.
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