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I’ve been too committed to book-writing to comment much lately, but
the deteriorating situation in the Balkans prompts this post.
Bosnia faces the risk of secession
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Serb member of the state presidency,
Milorad Dodik, is reiterating his intention to declare independence.
He nominally seeks incorporation into Serbia. His current issue is
that the state judiciary won’t allow him to expropriate public land
in Republika Srpska (RS), which he needs as collateral for the loans
he will be refinancing from Russia and other dubious sources this
summer.
But that contingency should not distract from the main objective.
Dodik has long aimed to be free of the scrutiny that comes from both
the state and the international community. His theft of RS resources
and abuse of the funds Russia supplies make him vulnerable to
prosecution. Dodik needs to free himself from Bosnia and find a home
where he won’t risk arrest. It is unlikely Serbia will open its
doors, as that would offend Brussels and Washington too much. But
Dodik will be content with an independent RS.
Kosovo does too
In Kosovo, the situation has gone from bad to worse. Serbian
President Vucic has demonstrated in two ways that he controls the
Serbs who live north of the Ibar River. First, Sunday’s elections
were peaceful. That could not have happened without his orders. Take
it as confirmation that Belgrade ordered all the rioting there in
the past. Second, the overwhelming majority of Serbs did not vote.
Vucic ordered that too. Those citizens who did vote elected four
Albanians as mayors in Serb-majority municipalities. Vucic and his
prime minister reacted with the fury of ethnic nationalists offended
that the minority decided the outcome, because of the boycott they
ordered.
I wouldn’t want to be one of those mayors. They will get little or
no cooperation from either local Serb officials or the majority
populations. Vucic’s fury is intended to hide the fact that he will
continue to de facto govern the four northern Serb-majority
municipalities from Belgrade, using its network of security agents
and organized criminals. Pristina will have a hard time getting
anything done there.
Montenegro has already fallen
Vucic has already captured Montenegro. He has used savvy hybrid
means with Russian support to elect a new president. Jakov Milatovic
claims to be pro-EU but is more than affectionate towards Serbia.
The Serbian Church, pro-Serbian political parties, and populist
mobilization against corruption combined to chase from office Milo
Djukanovic. He had held power for most of the last three decades,
governing with ethnic minority group support. Upcoming June 11
parliamentary elections will give Milatovic a deeply pro-Serb,
anti-minority majority in parliament.
Montenegro is a NATO member. Serbia claims militarily “neutral”
status. This should be enough to prevent any annexation, but it also
weakens the Alliance, inserting in its midst another spoiler like
Hungary.
No accident
It is no accident that parallel efforts at removing Serbs from
non-Serb governing authority are occurring in three countries.
President Vucic is pursuing the “Serbian world,” that is a state for
all Serbs that incorporates territory that lies in neighboring
countries. This is “Greater Serbia,” Milosevic’s goal, by another
name. In Bosnia, he needs only allow Dodik to do his thing. In
Kosovo, he is taking advantage of Prime Minister Kurti’s reluctance
to begin negotiations on a “self-management” mechanism for the Serbs
in Kosovo. In Montenegro, elections have delivered what Vucic
wanted.
While the Americans and Europeans continue to avow that Serbia is
embracing the West, in fact Vucic has turned his country
definitively to the East. For the “Serbian world” to become a
reality, Belgrade needs to hope Russia will win in Ukraine. That
would provide the precedent Vucic needs for annexing parts of Kosovo
and Bosnia. He will also need China to provide the financing Greater
Serbia will require. Montenegro he needn’t annex–just remarry to
recreate the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, which existed
2003-06. Or cohabitate with lots of bilateral agreements an inch
short of amalgamation.
The weak-kneed Americans and Europeans
Vucic knows the Americans and Europeans won’t want to accept de jure
a Greater Serbia. But he hopes they will learn to live with a de
facto one. They in turn are proving soft. Washington has been trying
to ignore Dodik and mollify Vucic. American diplomats vigorously
advocate for the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities he sees
as the vehicle for Serb “self-management.” The Americans have also
revivified military cooperation and provided lots of financing
through multilateral European development banks. Complaints about
corruption in Serbia are few and far between. This appeasement has
gotten no positive results.
Splits handicap the Europeans. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban acts
as a protector for both Vucic and Dodik, preventing sanctions
against both. France and the Netherlands have slowed enlargement
prospects for Macedonia, Albania, and Bosnia. That diminishes the
EU’s appeal also in Serbia and Montenegro. The five EU member states
that have not recognized Kosovo prevent a real consensus in its
favor, even in the relatively non-controversial vote this week at
the Council of Europe to Pristina’s membership process.
A change of direction is needed
The US and EU are failing in the Balkans. They need to change
direction. Their basic analysis is flawed. They have been relying on
Serbia as the pivotal state in the region to bring stability, in
cooperation with Croatia and Albania. But Serbia is a revisionist
power. It wants to govern all Serbs in the region. Croatia and
Albania have lesser ambitions, but in the same direction: to control
their compatriots in neighboring Bosnia and Kosovo.
Washington and Brussels need a far more vigorous, united, and
principled approach. That would support the rights of individual
citizens, whatever their ethnicity. It would counter ethnic
nationalism wherever it abuses minorities. It would reinforce the
sovereignty and territorial integrity of all the region’s states.
And it would welcome to the West only those who demonstrate real
solidarity with the West. |
