|
Saturday’s fifth mass protest against Serbia’s
President Vucic was the largest so far. People are “fed up.”
Triggered by two mass shootings, the protests have widened their aim
and now focus on getting rid of Vucic, freeing the media from
government control, and ending a culture of violence.
They’ve got my sympathies, but…
I can’t help but be sympathetic with the peaceful
protesters. Serbia re-elected Vucic with 60% of the vote just 14
months ago in a free but far from fair election. But it has been
clear for some time that a large slice of Serbian society is
displeased with his increasingly authoritarian rule, use of
violence, and insensitivity to environmental concerns. While his
political opposition is fragmented and ineffective, the protests are
proving united and sustained so far.
The question is whether they are powerful enough
to lead to his ouster. I doubt it. While it is common to cite the
October 2000 ouster of Slobodan Milosevic, it is too often forgotten
that those massive demonstrations were in support of election
results. Milosevic had lost an election he had called early,
thinking himself invulnerable. Vucic has talked about a Sepember
election, but he hasn’t called it yet. Before doing so, he will want
to be certain he will win it. He is good at using state resources
and jobs to ensure political support.
…Vucic still has cards to play
Vucic also knows well how to play the other usual
cards of Serbian politics. He staged his own rent-a-crowd
demonstration last weekend featuring ethnonationalist tirades. He at
the same time provoked clashes in Kosovo intended to distract
attention. These gave him an excuse to mobilize the Serbian Army and
deploy units to the border/boundary with Kosovo, claiming he needed
to protect Kosovo Serbs. Never mind that they were in danger because
they attacked Kosovo police protecting non-Serb mayors elected in
polls that the Serbs, under Vucic’s instructions, boycotted.
Vucic no doubt has other cards to play. He can
arrest and harass protest organizers. He can stage clashes inside
Serbia requiring the police to intervene. The Serbian media, which
mostly ignores the protests, can sing his praises louder and longer.
They can also amplify alleged threats to Serbs in Kosovo. Vucic can
rely on his now well-established allies in Washington and Brussels
to worry about what would happen if he were to fall, leaving the way
open for an even more ethnonationalist right-winger to take power.
Beijing’s surveillance technology and Moscow’s assistance to the
Serbian security services will do what they can to protect him. Many
Serbs already blame the American embassy for propping up Vucic.
|
