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Miodrag Vlahović, former Montengrin Minister of Foreign Affairs and
former ambassador to US, is now president of the Montengrin Helsinki
Committee. He writes:
Early parliamentary elections in Montenegro attracted the lowest
turnout ever (56%). They have not brought major surprises. The
populist movement “Europe Now!” gained seats in parliament, as
expected. It won only a thin majority (24 MPs to 21) over the
“Together” coalition led by former President Djukanović’s DPS. That
creates additional uncertainities and confusion in an already
compromised and disrupted political situation.
Government formation faces challenges
One thing seems clear: no coalition is possible between the two
largest parliamentary groups. Milojko Spajić will almost certainly
be given the mandate to form the the next government. He excludes
any possibility of forming a cabinet with DPS.
Spajić also rejects a coalition with incumbent “technical” Prime
Minister Abazović’s URA Movement, which won 12.5% and 11 seats
(together with “Democratic Montenegro”). The bitter feud between the
two is based on still unproven accusations of illegal election
funding by a South Korean crypto-currency trader, now under
investigation. The outcome of that proceeding may be harmful both
for Spajić and Abazović. It has already become an important – if not
the most important – feature of post-election Montenegro.
The pro-Serbian, pro-Russian For the Future of Montenegro coalition
won 14.7% and 13, which puts them in a vital position despite a big
decline from the previous election.
The country is not in good shape
Parliamentary elections in August 2020 expelled DPS from the
majority. Despite much pro-EU rhetoric, the results since have been
poor. Two annual EU Commission reports on Montenegrin progress have
shown regression, despite EU Commissioner for Enlargement Varhelyi’s
effort to support the populists who took power. In the meantime, the
two anti-DPS governments have caused dissaray in all segments of
social, economic, and political life, with clear signs of influence
coming from Belgrade and Moscow.
The last barrier against collapse remains Montenegro’s NATO
membership. Even that was significantly compromised by intentional
disruption of important activities of Agency for National Security
against the Serbian/Russian spy network in the country. Abazović has
overseen constant, debilitating purges there.
Spajić promotes a wishful thinking economic program, “Europe Now
2.0.” But even he acknowledges the country is on the brink of
financial implosion. “No salaries for public servants after
September,” he has stated bluntly. But that has not prevented him
from promising increases in salaries and pensions while announcing
elimination of the state Pension Fund! Those voters who supported
Spajić as well as two other coalitions close to Serbian President
Vučić ignore the risk of economic crisis. They count on promises of
miraculous progress by a new government empowered soon.
They may find themselves utterly surprised. Neither Spajić nor Jakov
Milatović, the vice-president of “Europe Now!” and newly elected
President, can guarantee political harmony even within their own
political ranks. Milatović remains close not only to Serbian
President Vučić, but also to Abazović. That complicates
Spajić’sposition.
The internationals
The Western diplomatic community in Podgorica prefers stability
underwritten by a stable qualified majority in the Parliament. They
ignore the perils of participation by pro-Serbian and pro-Russian
parties, despite their anti-NATO and de facto anti-EU standings. The
problem will be how to include the ethnic minority parties (Bosniak,
Albanian, and Croatian) in the new government. Western diplomats may
intend to politely order them to join.
Both Abazović and Milatović, together with other leaders of the
projected majority, support the Serbian proposal for “Open Balkans,”
which the US backs. Spajić is unlike to oppose it if he wants to
become prime minister.
So, the proverb has been confirmed: “once you enter the wrong train
– all the stations are the wrong ones.” Montenegro entered the wrong
train in August 2020. Insisting on continuing the journey does not
ensure but rather endangers Montenegrin political stability and
economic viability. It is a destructive and detrimental project. The
next station may have the name “Grave Consequences.” The names of
other “stations” would not be good even to mention here…
The return from the road to nowhere will be long and painful. The
later it comes, the worse it will be. |
