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Washington and Brussels claim that by courting Serbian President
Aleksandar Vučić they are weaning him away from Moscow and creating
a common front against the Putin regime. However, the evidence
demonstrates the exact opposite. Every concession to Belgrade or
lack of accountability for its provocative actions encourages the
Kremlin. Russian officials calculate that the West has a soft
presence in the Balkans and will continue to concede ground to avoid
violence. And perversely, it is the policy of appeasement that is
much more likely to lead to armed conflict.
The Kremlin views the Western Balkans as a strategic asset that
expands Russia’s geopolitical reach, fractures Western cohesion, and
undermine Euro-Atlantic institutions. Fomenting disputes contributes
to unsettling the region and dividing international responses.
Unresolved conflicts also enable the Kremlin to claim that despite
its expansion NATO has failed to stabilize the peninsula. Moscow
also seeks to discredit and weaken the US presence while gaining
allies that depend on its diplomatic support and financial
corruption. In pursuing these strategic objectives, Moscow helps
promote Serbian nationalism and expansionism.
American and EU diplomats display a lack of understanding of
Russia’s goals and strategies. They define Moscow’s involvement
simply as “meddling” rather than as subversion with a destructive
purpose. As a result, they assist Moscow through their consistently
misfiring policies. In the case of Serbia, they avoid publicly
criticizing Vucic’s authoritarianism and threats to Kosova’s
security and thereby raise his stature in Moscow as the primary
regional disruptor.
Over recent weeks, Belgrade has been allowed to build up its
military along Kosova’s border, threaten armed intervention in
alleged defense of the Serbian minority, recruit militants and
hooligans to attack NATO peacekeepers, Kosova officials and local
journalists, and kidnap Kosova’s police officers. The response from
Washington and Brussels has been tepid, thus encouraging further
provocative acts that can result in casualties.
Instead of pressing Belgrade by deploying strong diplomatic and
economic sanctions, Western envoys seem determined to please Putin
by blaming the unrest on the government in Prishtina. They naively
fail to realize that attacking Kosova for implementing its own
constitution on its entire territory not only weakens the state but
also directly helps Moscow by discrediting years of US democracy
promotion and state building.
About 15,000 Serbs in four northern Kosova municipalities, out of a
total Serbian population of some 96,000, boycotted the municipal
elections in April 2023. As a result, ethnic Albanian and Bosniak
candidates were elected with a low local turnout. The US State
Department declared the elections as consistent with Kosova’s
constitutional and legal requirements but then backtracked when
Belgrade incited violence by claiming the results were not a
long-term political solution. Washington also accused Prishtina of
provoking violence instead of pinpointing the true source of the
clashes – gangs hired by Serbia’s security agencies. The net result
was to embolden further anti-state actions and remove the spotlight
from the only long-term solution – mutual recognition between Serbia
and Kosova.
US ambassador to Pristina, Jeffrey Hovenier, even declared that
Washington would apply sanctions against Kosova following the
Serbian unrest, including the cancellation of Prishtina’s
participation in the US-led “Defender Europe 2023” military
exercise. In other words, US policy makers are now excluding Kosova
from a security umbrella that Moscow wants dismantled. The
ambassador also asserted that the US would cease all efforts to
assist Kosova in gaining recognition from the five remaining EU
states and halt the process of integration into international
organizations. The EU Commission further gifted Moscow by planning
to suspend funds, high level visits, and any work on the SAA
Agreement with Kosova.
Pressure by Western diplomats on Prishtina to establish an
Association of Serb Municipalities will further erode the authority
of the central government and increase Belgrade’s involvement in
disrupting Kosova’s institutions. It will give Moscow another inroad
in the region similar to the RS entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Washington and Brussels are also helping the greater Serbia project
by largely ignoring civil and minority rights outside of Kosova.
Nearly 100,000 Albanians form large majorities in two municipalities
in the Preševo valley but have far fewer rights than Serbs in Kosova
and are increasingly subject to government pressures.
In the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina, permitting unilateral election
changes by the High Representative helps ethno-nationalists, deepens
grievances, and encourages separatism. It appears that Western
envoys are now supporting the strategy of Russian officials who are
determined to keep Bosnia weak, divided, and unqualified for NATO or
the EU. They are also enticing Milorad Dodik to devise new moves
toward secession. For instance, as with the Serb boycott of Kosova’s
elections he can withdraw all Serbian officials from state-wide
institutions and declare the entity government in Banja Luka as the
only legitimate sovereign institution in the RS. A weak response
from Washington will then be seen as another green light on the road
to secession.
By centering US policy on Belgrade at the cost of its neighbors,
Washington is repeating its mistakes toward Russia. In placating
Moscow at Kyiv’s expense and failing to provide either sufficient
military deterrence or NATO membership for Ukraine, Washington
encouraged Russia’s invasion. A similar scenario is now unfolding in
the Western Balkans where Kosova and Bosnia are pressured to
surrender their sovereignty.
Vučić may allow old stocks of ammunition to be sent to Ukraine to
placate Washington, but he constantly mocks US/EU diplomats and
officials in his Russia connections. He regularly sends his
ministers to meet with Russian counterparts, signs energy deals and
other economic contracts, and allows Serbia to be used as the center
for Russian intelligence gathering and anti-Western information
wars. At the same time, Washington ignores Vučić’s corrupt criminal
connections and fails to censure him for his close relations with
Russia’s ruling war criminals. Such misguided policies will simply
embolden the Kremlin to maneuver Vučić into further destabilizing
the region. |
