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Dodik’s other interests: impunity
The first is to keep himself out of the hands of
any legal system, domestic or foreign, that will hold him
accountable for corrupt practices. When it imposed sanctions on
Dodik in 2022, the US Treasury alleged:
“Dodik is also being designated pursuant to E.O.
14033 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having directly
or indirectly engaged in, corruption related to the Western Balkans.
Specifically, he has established a patronage network in BiH from
which he and his associates benefit. As one example of his corrupt
actions, Dodik has provided government contracts and monopolies in
the RS directly to close business associates. With his corrupt
proceeds, Dodik has engaged in bribery and additional corrupt
activities to further his personal interests at the expense of
citizens in the RS.”
The Treasury also alleged that, using a company
(ATV) he personally controls, “Dodik has awarded ATV-related
contracts directly to members of his family, which he has used as
yet another avenue for corruption. He has funneled money directly
from public companies to ATV for corrupt purposes. Dodik has
substantially increased funding for ATV in recent years and engaged
in malign social media influence campaigns through ATV to publish
content that advances his political and personal goals.”
I too would want impunity, had I been credibly
accused of these things. Too bad the Europeans haven’t followed the
US lead on sanctions.
Dodik’s other interests: state property
The second Dodik interest is to ensure that state
property in the RS is at his disposal. The RS is heavily indebted,
to the tune of over $2 billion. A big slice of this amount, perhaps
more than one-quarter, needs to be repaid or refinanced this year.
State property is now the main collateral Dodik can pledge to
creditors. Everything else is already hocked to the max. While the
Finance Minister claims the debt is only 38% relative to GDP, RS
officials are scrounging in Beijing for financing.
The US Embassy in Sarajevo has made its position
on state property eminently clear:
“State property belongs to the state, and a
state-level law is required to regulate it. This is not a matter of
opinion; it is a constitutional and legal fact.”
Only saying it, however, won’t make it so.
Separating the court system could solve both
problems for Dodik
These two interests, impunity and debt, are why
Dodik, while pressing for independence, is trying first to block the
Bosnian court system from the RS, whose Assembly passed the “Law on
the Non-Enforcement of Decisions of the Constitutional Court of
Bosnia and Herzegovina.” The international community High
Representative has annulled that law, but it is unclear how he will
enforce the annulment. Dodik will seek instead to force the HiRep
into a negotiation on the state property issue. Once that happens,
Dodik can hope for half a loaf.
That makes me wonder. Is refusing to negotiate and
forcing the RS into bankruptcy a good idea? Won’t the debtor and the
creditors cry for the Sarajevo, the central (in local terms the
“state”) government, to intervene? The Chinese presumably won’t be
interested in RS secession and would likely want central government
intervention. The Russians, who are also creditors, might be
interested in secession, but in current circumstances they would be
unlikely to pick up the tab associated with bankruptcy. So why not
let the RS go bankrupt and start the negotiation there?
I’ll welcome submissions to peacefare.net that
argue the contrary case.
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