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He intends to follow Aliyev’s lead in
taking Nagorno-Karabakh back by force. When geopolitical
circumstances permit, he will do likewise with Kosovo.
Vučić did belatedly fire his security and
information agency chief Vulin. But he did it in response to
US sanctions, not the September 24 events. Milan Radojičić,
a close political ally of Vučić as well as Kosovo political
and criminal kingpin, has taken responsibility for the plot.
The authorities arrested but quickly freed him. The courts
will take their time getting around to a trial.
Nor should Serbia try him, since his
September 24 crimes were committed in Kosovo. He should be
handed over to the Pristina authorities.
So why the silence?
Some diplomats will attribute the silence
to preoccupation in Washington and Brussels with the Gaza
war. That certainly merits priority and slows high-level
decisions on other issues. But the State Department and the
EU foreign policy apparatus are both geared to deal with
problems worldwide, not just today’s top issues.
More likely they have hesitated because of
the Serbian parliamentary elections this Sunday, which won’t
bring big surprises. President Vučić would not have called
an early poll if he thought he would lose it. There is ample
evidence he is using the government’s media dominance, state
institutions, patronage, and largesse to ensure a friendly
outcome. But no one in Washington or Brussels at this point
should want to help him.
The EU has another handicap. It requires
consensus for any serious reaction. Most of its 27 members
might be ready to do something. But Hungary and perhaps now
Slovakia will be prepared to block consensus on sanctions on
Serbia.
I might also hope that the State
Department is re-evaluating its policy in the Balkans and
needs a bit more time to get it right. It has officials
devoted to the notion that he has succeeded in getting
Serbia to embrace the West. It is sometimes easier at State
to change personnel than minds, but it takes time.
Here are three nudges
Maybe Brussels and Washington need a nudge
in the right direction. They no doubt have this Kosovo
government preliminary report on the September 24 plot. But
to my knowledge no one has published it outside Kosovo. |
