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Here is a hint of what is really going on: US
Ambassador Chris Hill told a debate in Belgrade on political options
for the Western Balkans that many of the people protesting against
plans to mine lithium in western Serbia support Russia.
Those protests are the most serious opposition
movement still extant in Serbia today. Red-baiting (if we can still
label Moscow as “red”) the demonstrators aims to undermine their
impact. That is not the usual US position on environmental concerns.
But the Rio Tinto project is a top priority for President Vucic. We
can only imagine why. He has no doubt told the local diplomats that
he will greatly appreciate their help in squelching the protests.
Let me be clear: I have no objection in principle
to economic cooperation with Serbia, or to environmentally and
financially sound production of lithium in Serbia or elsewhere. But
I do object to European and American officials trying to squelch
environmental and financial concerns to please an increasingly
autocratic president.
Appeasement is the policy
The diplomatic pandering is part of a broader
effort to appease Serbia, provide it with economic goodies, and
convince it to turn westward. Let’s skip whether redbaiting
legitimate environmental criticism reflects Western ideals. The
bigger issue is whether this approach has any chance of working.
It is notable that in neither the European nor in
the American agreements cited above does Serbia undertake to conduct
its mining in an environmentally sound or financially transparent
way. The State Department made it clear the US wants financial
probity. The European agreement does likewise. But Belgrade didn’t
commit to it in either agreement.
Serbia has aligned itself militarily and
politically with Russia and China since Vucic became President, the
recent purchase of French Rafale warplanes notwithstanding. Belgrade
has also undertaken repeated efforts to destabilize northern Kosovo
and to undermine the independence of Montenegro as well as the
territorial integrity of Bosnia. The idea that Belgrade can be
convinced to embrace the West is dumb. Vucic will take EU money and
American political pressure on his environmental opponents, but
neither will make him give up his affection for like-minded
autocrats with irredentist ambitions.
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