|
We are entering the final stretch before the US
election. That means a lame duck period for lower priority parts of
the world like the Balkans until January 20. Neither Kamala Harris
nor Donald Trump is likely to say anything about the region before
November 5. Even after Inauguration Day it will be some time before
the new administration focuses on the Balkans.
We can guess their views
Harris’ views on the Balkans are unknown. But she
has spent a career prosecuting criminals and defending equal rights.
That likely tells you something about her attitude toward corruption
and ethnonationalism. Trump is a corrupt white supremacist who tried
to partition Kosovo while in the White House. If elected, he will no
doubt empower Ric Grenell or his doppelganger to try again in Kosovo
and Bosnia. Serbia has leverage on Trump. Jared Kushner has been
looking for investment opportunities there.
What should the people at the State Department and
in the White House do in this lame duck period? They should seek to
correct the mistakes of the last three years, which have produced
mainly diplomatic failure in the Balkans. The Biden Administration
mistakenly focused on creating a statutory Association of Serb
Majority Municipalities in Kosovo. In Bosnia, it rightly sought to
disempower ethnonationalist politicians, but it succeeded mainly
with Bosniaks. Those priorities condemned Biden’s Balkan policies to
strategic defeat. They also alienated Kosovars and Bosniaks,
America’s best friends in the region.
Here are a few ideas to correct course. Assuming
that Harris will be elected, as I fondly hope, these thoughts aim to
reduce the sway of ethnic nationalism. They would also increase the
functionality of governance in still-fragile Kosovo as well as
Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Some ideas
Consult with Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti on a
joint plan to establish beyond doubt his country’s sovereignty and
territorial integrity. This should include an end to Belgrade
intimidation of Serbs who join Kosovo security institutions and
wider international recognition.
Adopt as the official US stance conditional
support for a nongovernmental Association of Serb Majority
Municipalities. The municipalities themselves should form this
Association consistent with the Kosovo constitution. The conditions
should include Belgrade fulfillment of its obligations under the
agreement in which Pristina agreed to the Association.
Tell Belgrade publicly that it needs to produce
accountability for the Serbian government malfeasance of last year.
That includes the kidnapping of Kosovo police, rioting against KFOR,
and the Banjska terrorist plot.
Stop the bad-mouthing of Serbian
environmentalists who oppose the Rio Tinto lithium plant. Start
publicly criticizing corruption and growing autocracy in Belgrade.
End the Bosnia High Representative’s
intervention to reverse the European Court of Human Rights ruling in
the Kovacevic case. The ECHR ruling promises a big step in reducing
ethnic nationalist control of state institutions in Bosnia and
Herzegovina.
Develop criminal charges in the US against the
leading Serb and Croat advocates (Milorad Dodik and Dragan Covic) of
ethnonational division in Bosnia.
There are some tall orders in this list. But the
failure of three years of misguided US and EU diplomatic efforts
suggests a dramatic turn is needed.
The resistance will be strong
Serbia’s President Vucic is committed to the
“Serbian world” goal of governing Serbs in neighboring countries. He
has succeeded in Montenegro. The government in Podgorica is under
Serbia’s thumb. In Bosnia and Kosovo, only de facto partition can
deliver success to Serbia. Belgrade will resist all the above moves,
as will their proxies in the neighboring countries.
Belgrade is at risk of falling irreversibly under
the influence of Russia and China. The US needs to counter that
influence with sticks as well as carrots. The carrots only
appeasement approach has failed. Here is the result:
|
