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Republika Srpska (RS)–the Serb-controlled 49% of
Bosnia and Herzegovina–is equipping its police with automatic rifles
as well as reportedly initiating counter-terrorism training with
Russia. Does this matter? Is it a threat to a cold Balkans peace
that has lasted more than 22 years?
This news certainly illustrates the timidity of
both the European Union and the United States. Brussels and
Washington would not have allowed such things to happen for many of
the years since the Dayton peace accords brought an end to the
Bosnian war in 1995. Now they shrug it off, knowing that neither has
the political will to confront RS President Dodik and hoping that it
won’t really matter anyway. Some think the weapons more targeted
against Dodik’s opposition in the RS, rather than posing a threat
the Brcko District or the Bosnian Federation. The RS interior
minister denies the Russians will provide training.
Were I a Bosniak or a Croat I would not be a happy
camper. I might want to see the Federation police match the RS arms
and up the ante a bit to ensure that nothing untoward occurs. In
other words, what the RS has done could initiate an escalatory
spiral, one that will certainly increase the likelihood of armed
clashes sooner or later.
What should be done to stop this? The most
important thing is to ensure that the Brcko District remains outside
RS and Federation control. Without the Brcko District, the RS is
split into two pieces. That’s why it was so ferociously fought over
during the war and its disposition could not be decided at Dayton.
Instead, an American arbitrator decided it belonged to both the RS
and the Federation, which meant in essence it belonged to neither.
Reintegration there has been more successful than in most of the
rest of the country. That makes it the keystone that prevents Dayton
Bosnia from collapsing.
The US no longer has deployed troops in Bosnia and
it is doubtful Washington could be convinced to send them back. The
EU does, but they are currently scattered around the country in
militarily insignificant numbers, constituting a security presence
(not a serious deterrent force). But if a war starts again in
Bosnia, it won’t start all over the country, not least because of
the ethnic separation the previous war caused. Brcko will be the
center of gravity of the next war. The EU should move all of its six
hundred or so troops there, making clear that neither the Federation
nor RS will be permitted to take it and cause the Dayton edifice to
collapse.
It’s not that I treasure that edifice. There are
good arguments against the rigid ethnic power-sharing arrangements
created at Dayton. But a violent collapse of Bosnia and Herzegovina
would be catastrophic. What is needed is a peaceful renegotiation,
one that enables the country to qualify as a candidate for EU
membership.
As luck would have it, Sarajevo is planning to
submit its replies to the initial Brussels questionnaire concerning
Bosnia’s EU candidacy within the next few weeks. That is the right
direction: the EU’s new Balkans strategy has opened the possibility
of new accessions by 2025. Bosnia and Herzegovina is unlikely to
qualify in time for that date, because it has been slow to adopt and
implement the acquis communautaire (the EU’s accumulated legislation
and regulations). But it should do everything it can to move as
quickly as possible, before the window closes unpredictably.
Dodik’s automatic rifles are bad. But far worse
would be failure of Bosnians to keep their eyes on the prize of EU
membership.
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