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Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of the tripartite
presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, has been threatening
withdrawal from the state’s army, its taxation authority, its
intelligence and law enforcement apparatus, and its judiciary. Dodik
also denies the authority of the international community’s High
Representative, who under the Dayton agreements that ended the
Bosnian war 26 years ago is responsible for their civilian
implementation. If passed in the Republika Srpska (RS) parliament,
or implemented without formal legislative approval, Dodik’s moves
would amount to secession, even if no declaration of independence is
issued. Dodik appears to have the support of both Serbia and Russia,
though there is some dissent within Serb ranks inside the RS.
Last weekend in a visit to Belgrade Dodik
ambiguously backed off his most extreme threats, as he has often in
the past, but his overall goal remains clear: sovereignty and
independence for Republika Srpska.
How should the US and EU react?
They should not be fooled. Dodik will be back with
his threats. The West should not wait until Dodik gets the
legislative approval he seeks or acts on his own. Prevention will be
far better than cure when it comes to secession. Prevention requires
a military move. The EU should move, as many have advised many
times, all its 600 or so forces to Brcko, the northeastern Bosnian
town that was the center of gravity of the last war and will be also
of the next one. NATO should reinforce the EU with a few hundred US
and UK troops, which in the Balkans is still an unequivocal signal
of seriousness. Without Brcko, no RS move toward secession can
succeed because the RS would be split into two disconnected wings
and the land line of communication with Serbia cut.
Russia will try to prevent any move of this sort.
Its best bet is to veto the UN Security Council authorization for
the “Althea” European forces in Bosnia required in November. The US,
UK, and EU will need to be prepared to keep their forces in Brcko
whatever happens at the Security Council. While Dodik over the
weekend backed off from demands that the Althea operation end, that
should not fool anyone: NATO needs to make it clear it will stay in
Bosnia and Herzegovina no matter what happens at the Security
Council, whether in November or in six months. This can be done
under authority granted by the Dayton agreements.
But the military move to Brcko will not be
sufficient to end secession or the threat of secession quickly. The
notoriously corrupt Dodik, already sanctioned by the US, should also
be sanctioned by the EU. So too should any and all RS
parliamentarians who support his defiance of the Dayton agreements,
the High Representative’s powers, or the authorities of the state
(central) government. Republika Srpska owes its continued existence,
after a war in which it faced imminent defeat, to the Dayton
agreements. Its full cooperation with implementation of those
agreements as well as the HiRep’s decisions should be a sine quo
non.
The West will also need to be prepared to deprive
the RS government of sustenance. A secessionist entity should not
benefit from any sovereign financing, including money flowing from
the IMF, the World Bank, the EBRD, the EIB, and other lenders. The
IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument, the IBRD, and the EU are providing
upwards of $600 million to Bosnia and Herzegovina to deal with the
consequences of the COVID epidemic. They need to be prepared to make
the RS portion of those (and any other funds not yet transferred)
evaporate. It will be especially important to zero out institutional
budgetary support to the RS. Corridor Vc, a major highway being
built north to south through Bosnia, will have to be re-evaluated.
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RS withdrawal from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s
institutions would leave the country in constitutional and legal
limbo. The only real options at that point would be reversion to the
constitution of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, (which
preceded the current constitution), implementation of the current
constitution without reference to the RS, or reliance on the
constitution of the 51% of the country governed as the Federation
(which however has many features in common with the current
dysfunctional constitution). I’m not enough of a legal beagle to
know which would be best, but somehow the legal continuity of the
sovereign Bosnian state would need to be ensured.
In the 1990s, Americans hoped for a Europe “whole
and free.” The NATO intervention in Bosnia was intended to ensure
that hope was realized in the Balkans. But Serbia with Russian
support has decided that not even the Balkans will be whole and
free. Moscow and Belgrade are working to split the region between
autocracy and democracy, or at least to cause instability. Republika
Srpska, northern Kosovo, and Montenegro’s Serb regions are all
trying to peel off, with Russian and Serbian encouragement. If they
succeed, they will eventually be absorbed into what Serbian
President Vucic calls the “Serbian world,” better known as Greater
Serbia. This would be a serious defeat for liberal democracy and a
triumph for Vladimir Putin.
RS’s independence ambitions, Serbia’s territorial
aspirations, and Russian destabilization efforts need to be
countered. That will not be hard, if done sooner rather than later.
It will require a few hundred troops in Brcko, tough sanctions,
legal ingenuity, and a halt to RS financing. It is time to stop the
nonsense.
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