|
The upcoming European Union parliamentary
elections will help indicate in which direction the Union is
heading. No one can be certain whether they will reinforce anti-EU
populism, revive traditional pro-EU parties, or simply exacerbate
political volatility. Nonetheless, probably for the first time in
the EU’s history parliamentary elections have become an arena of
political excitement.
Voters in each EU country will elect a new
European Parliament on May 23-26, including the UK following its
seven-month Brexit delay. The 751-member EU parliament, elected
every five years, is the only directly representative European
institution, even though the average voter turnout in previous
ballots has barely reached 43 percent. Parliament has the authority
to amend, reject, or pass legislation that affects the lives of all
EU citizens. It also votes to approve the 28 members of the European
Commission – in effect the EU government.
Since the pro-Brexit vote and the success of
Euroskeptic parties in several national elections, alarm bells have
been ringing that populist nationalists will dominate and paralyze
the new parliament. Nationalist leaders are encouraging citizens to
vote while claiming that they are offering a “new European harmony”
that would limit the power of EU organs and restore state
sovereignty.
This harmony was on display at a rally in Prague
on April 25, sponsored by the Movement for a Europe of Nations and
Freedom (MENF), a pan-European alliance of nine nationalist parties
dedicated to stopping mass immigration and recovering national
sovereignty from EU bodies. They include the Czech Freedom and
Direct Democracy Party (SPD), the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), the
French National Rally (RN), Austria’s Freedom Party (FPO), and
Italy’s Northern League Party.
Matteo Salvini, Italian Interior Minister and
leader of the Northern League party, has called on nationalist
parties in the European Parliament to form a new alliance, which
Marie Le Pen, leader of the French National Rally, has dubbed the
European Alliance of Nations. Salvini has convened a meeting in
Milan on 18 May for all major anti-EU parties, including the
Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Danish People's Party (DF), and
the Finns Party (PS), and expects the new bloc to form the largest
parliamentary coalition. Hence, nationalists view the May elections
as a referendum on the future of the EU.
However, an attempt to form a new “nationalist
international” has its limits, particularly among neighbors with
historical resentments and cultural prejudices and where distinct
national interests predominate. Parties from different countries may
agree on an anti-immigration platform but not all populists seek to
emulate Brexit. There are divisions between hardliners who want to
fully disband the Union and Euroskeptics planning to curtail the
prerogatives of EU officials and restore more decisions to national
parliaments.
Recent opinion surveys indicate that Europeans are
not simply divided between pro-Europeans and nationalists, as there
are numerous gradations in between and many voters do not hold
iron-clad preferences. This does not mean that the traditionalist
parties will rebound in the upcoming elections, but that populism
has its limits. For the “mainstream” parties to regain public trust,
they need to recast themselves as reformers fighting for ordinary
citizens and national stabilizers in a period of profound public
uncertainty.
Indeed, a series of recent presidential, national,
and local elections indicate that the electorate may not be
radically polarized but exceptionally volatile. During the last few
months a diversity of political parties across the political
spectrum have scored better than expected, including Greens in
Germany, social liberals in Slovakia, and the ultra-right in Spain.
A recent report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
discovered almost 100 million swing voters uncommitted to any party
ahead of the EU elections, forming 70% of citizens who stated that
they are planning to vote.
Moreover, voter priorities change during each
election cycle. The previous focus on mass immigration has now
shifted toward government corruption, health care, living standards,
youth unemployment, and particularly in Central East Europe, the
emigration of educated professionals. Unpredictable political
newcomers, of left, right, and center could make the next five years
the most volatile in the EU’s history, even without the seemingly
unending Brexit drama.
While member states are focused on the future of
the Union, several Western Balkan states are still hoping to enter
the EU and benefit from its economic potential. But despite various
initiatives by Brussels, Berlin, and Paris at the Balkan Summit in
late April, designed to facilitate progress toward accession, the
German and French leaders offered symbolism over substance.
Although Chancellor Angela Merkel and French
President Emanuel Macron met with leaders from all six West Balkan
states, they failed to resolve any outstanding conflicts or to
announce concrete decisions on enlargement. This will generate
skepticism about future meetings and EU commitments to Balkan
inclusion. It appears that the Union is not only struggling with
political uncertainty and potential shrinkage but its most important
foreign policy tool, the prospect of enlargement, is also in
jeopardy.
|
