|
That of course is EU envoy Miroslav Lajcak on the left and Serbian
President Vucic on the right. Accompanying this photo, Lajcak wrote:
Arriving in Belgrade this morning, I met with @predsednikrs @avucic.
In our discussion, we focused on the strategic outlook for 2024,
took stock on the state of play in the Dialogue and spoke about the
next steps in the normalisation of relations with Kosovo.
Despite Lajcak’s effort to portray the meeting in neutral terms,
there are good reasons for the grim looks.
The tilt is definitively eastward
Vucic is increasingly alienated from the West the Europeans want him
to embrace. Just in the last few months, he has
Sponsored a terrorist attack inside Kosovo intended to spark a
response that would allow him to move his military into his
neighbor’s north.
Mobilized the Serbian army for that purpose.
Conducted a fraudulent election in Belgrade, importing thousands of
voters from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Aligned Serbia increasingly with the strongmen not only of Russia
and China but also Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Hungary.
Increasingly supported the secessionist ambitions of Milorad Dodik,
the strongman of the Serb-majority 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
So far as I am aware, the only tidbits Vucic has offered the West
are acceptance of Kosovo documents and license plates in Serbia and
steps towards payment by Serbs in Kosovo of their electricity bills.
I doubt however many Kosovo Albanians will risking their windshields
to drive into Serbia with Kosovo plates. We’ll surely need to wait a
while before the bills are paid.
What Lajcak should be saying
So what should Lajcak be saying to Vucic once the cameras are out of
the room? @ivanastradner gives us part of the answer with this tweet
about the UK specialy envoy for the Balkans:
Special envoy to the Western Balkans sent crystal clear messages: 1.
Serbia should impose sanctions on Russia. 2. Serbia should
investigate elections irregularities. 3. Republika Srpska cannot be
an independent state.
telegram channels are so upset…
But that would not suffice. The Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia
will have little impact. I would stop asking for them. Belgrade
hardly needs to investigate the election irregularities. It needs to
rerun the elections. The EU needs to make it clear that Brussels
will suspend accession negotiations with Belgrade in response to any
future mobilization of the Serbian Army against Kosovo. Belgrade
should surrender the avowed ring leader of the September 24 attack
to the Kosovo authorities for trial. Brussels require that Vucic
publicly renounce the Russian-sponsored, irredentist “Serbian world”
program that has endangered the sovereignty and territoriality of
Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Macedonia.
https://twitter.com/ivanastradner/status/1751450967504039968/photo/1
The Americans should be chiming in
Washington is in part responsible for the appeasement the EU has
undertaken in respone to Belgrade’s defection. It needs to change
its tune, in public as well as in private. In addition to pushing on
the points above, the US should put its money where its mouth is.
There should be no more World Bank money or other multilateral
financial assistance for Serbia until it accepts in both word and
deed the February and March agreements that both the EU and US claim
are legally binding.
The Americans should also revivify their own relations with Pristina
and try to bend the EU back into a friendlier relationship with
Pristina. The “consequences” Brussels levied on Kosovo last year
because of lack of progress in the dialogue with Belgrade were
always unjustiably one-sided. Now they look ridiculous. The police
the EU wanted withdrawn from Kosovo prevented a disastrous outcome
last September 24 when they responded effectively and professionally
to the terrorist attack Belgrade sponsored. The non-Serb mayors
elected in polls Belgrade got the Serb majorities in the four
northern municipalities of Kosovo to boycott have likewise behaved
professionally while awaiting a new election.
Smiles all around?
The Balkans are a minor theater of conflict in today’s world. The
wars in the Ukraine and the Middle East as well as the Chinese
threat against Taiwan are far more important. But even minor
instability in the Balkans could greatly complicate those other
issues. Irredentism is a major factor in all of them. The Balkan
region has a sad history of aggravating larger issues. The US and EU
should aim to end any possibility of that happening again. Then
maybe Vucic and Lajcak could smile not only at each other but also
at Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti. |
