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I spoke today at a conference in Pristina
commenmorating the 20th anniversary of the NATO deployment in
Kosovo. These were my speaking notes, but time restriction meant I
started around point 11.
I underlined in addition that solid US/EU
agreement is vital to getting things done in the Balkans. It does
not exist for swapping people and territory on an ethnic basis, as
the Americans have said they would entertain the idea but Germany
and the UK have ruled it out.
It is a pleasure to be back in Pristina, a city
I have known since it was under Serb control.
Whatever your preoccupations today—and I know
they are many—let me assure you that this is a far more lively,
free, interesting, youthful, and energetic place than it was in
1998.
The Kosovo state that exists today is a product
of an amazing, unlikely, and entirely unpredictable series of
events. In addition to Kosovo’s own hard work, it involved
Albanian nonviolent and violent rebellion,
Serbian repression,
the dissolution of socialist Yugoslavia,
state collapse in Albania,
NATO intervention,
U.S. and EU support,
Russian weakness, and
ample international assistance and UN
administration.
Without one or another of these ingredients, it
might never have occurred, and certainly not in the surprising way
that it did.
I underline this point for a reason: those who
think they can predict the future of Kosovo, or of the region, are
unlikely to be correct. That includes me.
But I do think that we can hope to identify
some factors that will either contribute to or detract from regional
stability and sustainable peace.
The Prespa agreement, for example, clearly
improved regional stability, as it ended any prospect of partition
there and opened the door to NATO membership for North Macedonia.
I think normalization of relations between
Pristina and Belgrade is the next important step towards sustainable
peace.
But like the Prespa agreement it needs to be
done in a way that respects regional requirements, not only the
desires of Belgrade and Pristina.
This is one of many reasons why I believe all
transfers of territory, except those technically required in the
border demarcation process, need to be ruled out.
Exchange of people and territory on an ethnic
basis would not only demonstrate that neither Pristina nor Belgrade
is able to treat all its citizens correctly. It would also
destabilize Bosnia as well as Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Only
President Putin could welcome such a move.
Land swaps would even cast doubt on the future
of the Serbs south of the Ibar River and of remaining Albanians in
southern Serbia.
None of us should want to take such risks.
So what is the alternative?
First, Kosovars need to be patient. Pristina’s
leverage will increase as Belgrade approaches EU accession. To get a
good deal, you need to be able and willing to walk away from a bad
one.
But you also need to be prepared to put
something on the table that Belgrade finds attractive. I’ve made
several suggestions: limits on the capabilities of the Kosovo army,
enhanced protection for Serb sites south of the Ibar, implementation
of an Association of Serb Municipalities consistent with the Kosovo
Constitutional Court decision.
You also need to get the Pristina/Belgrade
dialogue restarted, because the Americans and Europeans want it and
you need it.
Here I am going to offend, in a single
sentence, both your President and your Prime Minister: you need to
forget about ethnic territorial division and get rid of the tariffs
on Serbian goods.
To your President I say this: Vucic cannot give
you what you want in southern Serbia and you cannot give him what he
wants in northern Kosovo. Neither parliament nor a referendum in
either country will approve such a deal.
To your Prime Minister I say this: the tariffs
have succeeded in getting you back into the dialogue, but now you
should stand on the well-crafted Platform that the political parties
have generated. The tariffs have served your purpose and need at
least to be suspended.
But you should expect something in return: the
EU should implement the visa waiver and the Serbs should end their
campaign against Kosovo membership in international organizations.
CEFTA should open a serious discussion of Kosovo’s concerns with
trade barriers in Serbia.
A mini-package of that sort could restart the
dialogue on a more realistic basis, which means ending the
discussion of territory but beginning the process of demarcating the
border.
A final appeal: you are going to need the
Americans to cut a deal with the Russians for your UN membership, a
deal that may involve serious sacrifice on the part of Washington.
The Americans will only be ready and willing if
you can carry over the incredibly friendly spirit of these two days
celebrating the NATO deployment in Kosovo to the dialogue.
That is one more reason for ending talk of
ethnic division and tariffs and thereby making sure that the
Americans will be ready to do whatever is necessary to ensure your
UN membership.
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