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Kosovo voted for a new parliament today. The
results are striking: the two parties that formed most of the
majority in the last parliament came in third and fourth. Two
opposition parties came in first and second. The PDK (Democratic
Party of Kosovo), which has been in government since independence,
has declared it will go into opposition. The electoral mechanism
seems to have functioned well, but official assessments won’t be
available for a couple of days.
The leaders were the LDK (Democratic League of
Kosovo), which led the non-violent protest movement before the 1999
war and has participated in government coalitions in the past, and
VV (Self-Determination), which is a post-war movement that has never
been in the government. At this writing, VV is claiming to have won.
The cautious and moderate Isa Mustafa, a former prime minister,
leads the LDK. The sometimes unruly and charismatic Albin Kurti
leads VV. Many have thought they might govern together in the next
coalition, but that was before they won virtually equal shares of
yesterday’s vote. There are now presumably other arithmetic
possibilities, so an intense negotiation is likely, taking weeks if
not months unless the LDK and VV agree quickly on a prime minister
and a government program.
Yesterday’s result was foreshadowed in National
Democratic Institute polling from March, which concluded:
The research shows that citizens desire reforms
that will foster social cohesion, economic opportunity, and the rule
of law. Tackling corruption cuts across all of these areas and
remains at the forefront of citizen priorities. On dialogue with
Serbia to normalize post-war relations, citizens seek greater
transparency and are not in favor of border changes to bring about a
resolution. Generally, citizens seek greater efforts of political
leaders to foster consensus to bring policy changes that will
improve their lives.
The citizens wanted change and voted for it. Those
who think the US and Europe are determined to maintain
“stabilocracy” take note: Washington and Brussels will not be
unhappy to see alternation in power.
The governing challenge will be a big one.
Complaints about corruption in Kosovo in my experience focus on two
levels:
Grand corruption by political leaders and
their families, who are known to control assets far larger than
their salaries can have provided;
More or less petty corruption via
nepotism, especially in hiring for government positions.
I hope the new government, whoever enters it, will
launch a major effort to document and prosecute grand corruption.
Nepotism is going to be harder: Kosovo is a society in which
extended family ties are still strong. Hiring your cousin is a
familial obligation that many see as corrup only when others do it.
The dialogue with Serbia will be another priority,
as both Brussels and Washington are pressing for complete
normalization of relations between Pristina and Belgrade. But they
are pressing for different solutions: Washington is looking for a
land swap that its newly appointed Special Envoy will no doubt
press; Brussels is looking for a solution that maintains Kosovo’s
territorial integrity even if it compromises its sovereignty over
Serb communities. This kind of split between the EU and the US is
not a good omen.
Nor is the impending Serbian election, due by
April next year. President Vucic is a skilled manipulator of Western
thinking, even if he has presided over a years-long slide of Serbia
in Russia’s direction. He will argue that Serbia has to “get
something” in the negotiations with Kosovo because he needs a
parliament that will have to ratify the outcome. In order to get a
good deal, Pristina will need to be ready to walk away from a bad
one, but that will be difficult if Brussels and Washington decide to
back it.
One unfortunate wrinkle in the election results:
over 90% of Serbs voted for a list controlled by Belgrade. Vucic
regards this as a triumph. I regard it as betraying the unfortunate
autocratic control Belgrade exercises among the Serbs of Kosovo.
Maybe it is also evidence that Serbia can agree to just about
anything on Kosovo without Vucic getting something.
Any government that wants to please the citizens
of Kosovo will want to deliver economic results. Kosovo has not done
all that badly in recent years:
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