|
Kosova has reached an important crossroads in its
development as an independent state. A major opposition party
surprisingly won the general elections on October 6 and pledged to
conduct major house cleaning to reform the country’s institutions
and accelerate the process of EU accession. Meanwhile, the
appointment of a new U.S. envoy to restart talks between Kosova and
Serbia provides fresh impetus for a final resolution to one of the
most intractable regional problems.
During Kosova’s election campaign, crime and
corruption, in addition to health care and education, topped the
agenda. But the incoming government must not only commit itself
verbally to rooting out the worst abuses, it needs to start
delivering results. Slogans and promises may no longer placate an
electorate that has grown increasingly frustrated with the lack of
economic progress or satisfy international players who see the
country as being stuck in a hole.
The anti-corruption initiative must encompass all
government institutions. Strict standards of accountability and the
reporting of assets owned by officials must be mandatory, while any
contacts between elected officials and private businesses must be
transparent and subject to investigation. Judicial reform must also
be completed to replace judges and prosecutors who grow wealthy on
bribes.
Serbian officials claim that Kosova is a failed
state riddled with criminality and is not deserving of international
recognition. Measures to counteract corruption would send a strong
message to international institutions that Prishtina is serious
about qualifying for membership. The head of the election-winning
party, the Movement for Self-Determination (Vetevendosje), Albin
Kurti, may be the most significant figure since independence to
tackle government corruption, especially as he is not implicated in
any opaque deals.
A second major task for the new administration in
Prishtina is to speak with one voice in resolving its standoff with
Serbia. The speedy formation of a coalition government between
Vetevendosje and the Democratic League of Kosova (LDK), which came
second in the elections, would send a strong signal of unity in
foreign policy.
The new administration needs to underscore a clear
objective - full international recognition and inclusion in all key
international organizations. Anything less will not deliver
stability to the region. And the government must not be distracted
or divided by speculations about partition or territorial exchanges
that could sabotage the talks.
The appointment of the U.S. Ambassador to Germany,
Richard Grenell, as a special envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue
indicates that the White House is determined to normalize relations
between the two states, having already appointed Matt Palmer, the
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, as special envoy for the West
Balkans. Although Grenell is new to the region, he has experience as
a negotiator in the United Nations. Palmer is a seasoned State
Department official who is well aware of Balkan complexities and
pitfalls.
The dispute over normalization can only be fully
resolved if Serbia accepts Kosova’s independence. Grenell will be
hard-pressed to swiftly find the formula to achieve such a
breakthrough. Additionally, despite his contentious history as U.S.
Ambassador to Germany, he will need to work in tandem with EU
representatives who possess the enticing carrot of Union membership
for all West Balkan states.
Prishtina must cooperate closely with Grenell and
Palmer by demonstrating its willingness to compromise on specific
issues, such as lifting onerous tariffs against Serbia. On the other
hand, it must avoid any unilateral concessions. The new U.S. envoys
may be open to land swaps or the exchange of Kosova’s northern
municipalities with Serbian majorities for Belgrade’s recognition of
Kosova’s independence. However, they are likely to face significant
political obstacles, as the new government in Prishtina could lose
much of its public support if it surrenders territory to Belgrade.
Likewise, the Serbian government is unlikely to
yield any territory in the Preševo valley, which contains Albanian
majorities, especially with parliamentary elections looming in April
2020. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić expressed surprise over
Washington’s decision to appoint two special envoys to accelerate
the negotiation process with Prishtina. Belgrade has always looked
toward Brussels to delay any agreements with Kosova, hoping that it
can play off various capitals against each other and move into the
EU before reaching a final accord with Prishtina.
Moscow will also be calculating how it can
neutralize or derail any new American initiative if this is intended
to culminate in Kosova’s UN membership and recognition by Serbia.
President Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin does not welcome agreements that
generate stability in the Western Balkans and enhance prospects for
completing the region’s integration into the EU and NATO.
The Kremlin may even appoint its own Balkan envoy
or demand an equal voice in the upcoming negotiations. However, it
is worth remembering that the only successful agreements implemented
in the region are those where Moscow played no role. These include
the 1995 Dayton Accords for Bosnia-Herzegovina, the 2001 Ohrid
Framework Agreement between the two major ethnic groups in
Macedonia, and the 2018 Prespa Agreement between North Macedonia and
Greece. Any durable accord between Kosova and Serbia must remain
free from Kremlin interference.
|
