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First and foremost: congratulations on your
election win and your successful efforts to form a coalition! While
I still haven’t seen your government program, I would like to offer
some thoughts on the problems you face and how to deal with them.
You now face the daunting challenges of leading a
country that is less than two decades from a devastating war and
only 12 years from independence. Kosovo lacks universal recognition
and struggles to get treated fairly by the European Union, which has
withheld the visa waiver, includes five non-recognizing countries,
and blames Kosovo more than Serbia for the current stagnation of
talks between Belgrade and Pristina. While Kosovo’s economy has
grown pretty well, it is still plagued by poverty, corruption,
political favoritism, and nepotism. Its politics are rough, its
state less than mature, and some of its Serb minority as well as
Belgrade still unreconciled.
There will be no instant solutions, but there are
some things you can do that will set the right course.
My understanding is that the EU was prepared to
fulfill its visa waiver promise if Kosovo would suspend its tariffs
on Serbian goods in exchange for Serbia ending its de-recognition
campaign and allowing Kosovo into international organizations like
Interpol and UNESCO. This was a good deal that your predecessor
rejected for domestic political reasons. The start of your mandate
is the ideal time to suspend the tariffs, in exchange not only for
the visa waiver and an end to the de-recognition campaign but also
Serbian implementation of the several Pristina/Belgrade agreements,
especially the one on energy.
Nothing you do will work well unless Kosovo’s
economy continues to grow, preferably even faster than it has to
date. I understand that your political movement Vetevendosje opposes
privatization and is keen on state intervention in the economy and
perhaps even a sovereign wealth fund. Some think the Trepca mining
complex will be manna from heaven.
I doubt those are the directions in which you will
find economic salvation. I’ve never seen a serious report on Trepca
that was positive. The investments required to modernize the complex
are big. Zinc and lead, its primary mineral deposits, are just not
worth much on the market today. Kosovo’s growth in the future will
depend far more on its business environment, which has not been
improving as it should, and on its small and medium enterprises than
on Trepca. You need entrepreneurs more than magnates, who too often
turn into oligarchs.
You also need the state, by which I mean
institutions that can guarantee continuity under the rule of law
even as politics sweeps one government out and another one in.
Kosovo has done pretty well in forming and developing some of those
institutions. I would cite the Constitutional Court, the Kosovo
Police, the Defense Ministry, the nascent Army, and the Foreign
Ministry as good examples, but partly because I am more familiar
with them than many of the other institutions. All however need more
professionalism and parliamentary oversight if they are to meet
European Union standards. Statebuilding is unglamorous, but vital.
Accession to NATO and the EU will, I trust, remain
your strategic objective. You have some advantages over other
aspiring states in the EU regatta. Kosovo’s press has been
relatively free and its courts relatively independent, at least at
the upper level. Your legislation has been EU-compliant since
independence. Your main shortcoming is in implementation. You need
to get much more serious about applying all the legislation you
pass.
I am an enthusiast for EU membership and skeptical
of propositions like the “mini-Schengen” proposal to eliminate
borders among Serbia, Albania, and Macedonia as well as the recent
agreement to open air service to Belgrade, which reiterates Serbia’s
sovereignty claims and ignores far more important issues concerning
control over air operations above Kosovo. Kosovo’s limited state
capacity would have to be diverted from implementing the acquis
communautaire in order to participate in mini-Schengen, which is one
more regional effort to achieve many of the things that should have
been achieved in the Regional Cooperation Council, the
Belgrade/Pristina dialogue, the Central Europe Free Trade Area
(CEFTA), and other fora.
Far more important is that you take the offensive
in proposing things that would really matter to your country and
shift the onus of refusing to Belgrade. Your Defense Minister and
Army Chief of Staff should make themselves available to talk with
their Serbian counterparts. You could propose that the Kosovo/Serbia
border be demarcated as a technical exercise (which it is) even
without Serbian recognition. I would like to see the Serbian
Church’s property rights recognized, consistent with Kosovo’s
constitution, on a unilateral basis: the Constitutional Court’s
decision on church property in Decan/Decani needs to be implemented.
It is vital that Serbs in Kosovo see and feel that the Kosovo state
is prepared to treat them fairly.
The Europeans and Americans may pressure you to
re-enter the dialogue with Belgrade sooner rather than later. I see
no advantage to Kosovo in doing that before Serbia’s parliamentary
election in April, as the internationals will want to get something
for President Vucic that he can use to his advantage in his
electoral campaign. Best to play hard to get, insist on a good deal,
and be prepared to wait for the period immediately after the
election, when Vucic will be at the peak of his power and able to
deliver on things that will be well forgotten before the next
Serbian election.
Albin: when we met 21 years ago, I was with the
United States Institute of Peace on my first visit to Pristina and
you were the right hand to the Kosovo thinker and undaunted
activist, Adem Demaci, who has continued to be an inspiration to you
in seeking to contribute to your country’s freedom and welfare. I
did not imagine when we first met that you would become the prime
minister of an independent Kosovo with aspirations to join NATO and
the EU. That is an enormous privilege, which you have won with skill
and determination. I wish you success. As my grandmother would say
about anything new, even if it couldn’t be worn: “wear it in good
health.” (trog gezunterheit).
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