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Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti lost a vote of
confidence yesterday, abandoned by his main LDK coalition partner.
He remains in office as caretaker, though it is unclear to me
whether he’ll get another crack at forming a government. More likely
he’ll be forced to cede to someone else or take the country to an
early election. The latter would be difficult with Covid-19 around.
The Trump Administration welcomes Albin’s fall, as
he was refusing to bend to its demand that he unilaterally abolish
all the tariffs his predecessor had levied on Serbian goods, in
retaliation for Belgrade’s campaign against recognition of Kosovo.
Washington has abandoned the traditional American policy of support
for Kosovo’s democracy and territorial integrity and is now twisting
Pristina’s political arms in favor of a deal with Serbia that would
damage both. There have been many ugly moments in Kosovo, so this
one doesn’t really rate in the hall of infamy. But it isn’t pretty.
Albin was trying to deny emergency powers (to deal
with Covid-19) to President Thaci because he feared Hashim would use
them to cut a deal with Serbia unacceptable to the government. This
despite the fact that both the parliament and the constitutional
court have said the government should have the responsibility of
negotiating with Belgrade. The Prime Minister made the mistake of
firing an important figure from his LDK coalition partner when the
Interior Minister suggested the President should get the emergency
powers he wants. That, along with intense American pressure, seems
to have turned the LDK against Albin.
I suppose Hashim will now try to cobble together a
government more to his liking that will grant him the emergency
powers he has sought. Albin is in a weakened position, as his party
can’t govern without coalition partners that are unlikely to be
available. But there are signs Albin would do well in new elections.
The country is solidly against the kind of exchange of territory
with Serbia that Hashim is open to, but if he can he’ll try to
proceed with the deal with Belgrade as quickly as feasible after the
April 26 Serbian election.*
The big question is why. All of Pristina thinks
the Americans have promised Hashim protection from prosecution, in
particular by the Special Chamber that operates in The Hague to deal
with particular crimes committed before, during, and after the 1999
Kosovo war. I don’t know whether that is true, and I’ve long doubted
that the Special Chamber prosecutor has the needed evidence to
indict. But the prosecutor is an American the Trump Administration
appointed. It is not hard to imagine he could be told to indict or
not indict.
The President is no doubt concerned about his
legacy and doesn’t want an indictment to mar it. But he should think
twice before going ahead with a land/people swap that could lead to
the end of the Serb presence in Kosovo, because those not on
territory traded to Serbia will either flee or gradually relocate
over the next few years. Kosovo would then be ripe plucking for
Albania’s eastern province. The father of his country could find his
legacy turned to the political equivalent of dust.
* Correction, 3/26: the Serbian election has been
postponed due to Covid-19. I should have known.
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